日志
法定暴力团山口组 暴力打造日本人彬彬有礼
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法定暴力团山口组 暴力打造日本人彬彬有礼
李洪德 2025年19月25日
https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTMwMTgz
本文扩展于我在2015年10月12日发表在网易博客上的文章《山口组公开存在的组织特性和社会价值》，网易博客已经被主办方关闭，失去原始链接。
今天，想起这篇文章，起因于中国老年人唯我独尊的行为，中华文明的基石-儒家价值体系已经被摧毁，人们怨声载道，法律成摆设，政府无能为力。
这不是小事，是延续500年的中华民族被摧毁的前兆，敌人是自己错误的教育体系和人为摧毁的法律体系兽性化的国民。为此，我一直思考这个问题。
2023年2月9日，我曾经写了文章《为什么中国人智商IQ远远高于他人》，启迪于2020年的文章 Lifelong antisocial behaviour linked to brain structure differences：新西兰人口研究发现，23%的少年减至12%成年，是终身持续反社会，这种人大脑的360个区域的282个表面积少11个皮层薄，涉及支配反社会行为的目标导向、调节情绪和动机。
我认为，对社会治理而言，最有害的不是那些持续反社会的人，其危害具有局限性。危害最大的是那些介于正常和反社会之间的人，尤其是那些接近正常的人，具有很强的欺骗性，极易掌控政府作恶，这是高等动物生活在低等动物状态的主因。
我想起去过日本的同胞表扬日本人彬彬有礼。然而，同胞们不知道，日本人这德行不是天生高素质，而是政府支持的黑社会--暴力团山口组，用暴力手段强制驯服的结果。如果，日本人犯错，被山口组发现，会被强迫到无人处，赏个鼻青脸肿。
还有华人的骄傲李光耀打造的花园城市新加坡，人人遵纪守法，建设和保护花园国家。这也不是新加坡人素质高，而是，保留英国人殖民统治时期的鞭刑的功劳。谁胆敢违反社会公德，破坏花园城市，一鞭一道血口留下疤痕，终生提醒不再犯。
2022年6月17日，中国未来的国运：中国政法大学马克思主义学院的郭继承教授说，中华文明从宋朝起千年衰落，重新崛起，已经站在世界文明的顶端，必须文化立国，创建脱离西方文化的全新文明。可是，文明的根基，儒家文明已经被摧毁。
2023年10月30日，我曾经写文章《王沪宁的恐惧与努力 国魂争夺之战》，启迪于美国作家 N.S. Lyons 的文章The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning：王沪宁是中共最顶尖意识形态理论家，三代领导人的帝师，习近平的每个标志性政治概念都是他提出来的，"中国梦"、反腐运动、"一带一路"倡议、甚至"习近平思想"。王出版近20本书和大量论文；其思想与当今中国正在发生的事情之间存在明显的连续性，说明北京是通过王沪宁的眼睛看世界。
1988年,33岁的王沪宁以前所未有的速度成为复旦大学最年轻的正教授，获奖访美6个月，结论：美国自由主义泛滥；放任公司接管政府职能，过度商品化，导致社会价值体系崩溃，制度必将随之坍塌。此发现让他永久地放弃了先前的、从自由民主取得有益借鉴的幻想。1989年回到中国，被晋升为复旦大学国际政治系主任，成为西方自由化的砥柱反对者。
1993年，王沪宁带领复旦大学辩论队，在新加坡的国际竞赛中，以人性本恶论点击败台大队:"西方现代文明虽然可以带来物质繁荣，但是，并不一定能带来人的品格改善"，赢得广泛赞誉，40岁时，被江泽民任命为中央政策研究室主任,进入国家最高权力梯队。
后来与习近平一起，坚决抵制西方自由主义文化入侵，坚持中国共产党中央集权，坚持国有经济主导的市场经济，走共同富裕。发动各级政府、企业和个人对口扶持贫困地区，让8亿多同胞脱贫。如今，衰败的西方映照抵制西方自由主义文化入侵的先见之明。
然而，在中国，阻当西方文化入侵早已失败。虽然，在政治和意识形态方面看似成功，其实中国的教育和法律体系，在新中国建国后就被西方文化接管。如今，中国数千年的立国根基---儒家价值体系已经被彻底摧毁。看看众多老年人的行为,既没有中国儒家意识,又没有西方守法素质,广场舞扰民，碰瓷敲诈，暴走团瘫痪交通，倚老卖老，干尽邪恶。
情况更加糟糕的是，这些年，巨资送大量孩子出国，到西方接受教育，被禽兽西方文化洗脑兽性化, 回到祖国，窃取了国家攸关行政机关的领导岗位，在实际行动上，推行被西方教育灌输的兽性文化，利用西方的兽性文化，制定政策和法律，彻底摧毁祖国。
同胞在自己的祖国，被坏人遍布欺诈的陷阱，手段越来越邪恶，防不胜防，随时倾家荡产。
让摧毁家园的黑人印度人穆斯林涌入中国，让同胞们面对令人恶心的面孔和被伤害的恐惧。
出资10万请印度学生占据中国重点实验室职位的50%以上，回国后立刻开发武器摧毁中国。
国家严控稀土，还有人胆敢走私给敌人，有人利用在祖国学习的技术，帮助敌人提炼稀土。
中国的教育部编辑的教材，公然丑化同胞，既不讲儒家文明思想和传统，也不讲遵纪手法。
把发行的货币变成主权债券高利贷，还要还本支付巨额利息。这混账玩法已经把美国摧毁。
中国的司法大学培养的法官，律师，胆大包天，无所顾忌，吃拿卡要，胆敢公然违法判案。
在中国，各种犯罪猖獗，电信诈骗，偷抢拐卖儿童，学校霸凌致死，等等，各种兽性邪恶不断地重复上演。西方文化兽性化的法官,判案鼓励碰瓷敲诈,索赔奖励坏人,巨额索赔足以让被敲诈者倾家荡产,负债累累，在中国，有人摔倒不敢扶，摧毁了儒家文明。
移植于禽兽西方的兽性司法条款，为邪恶者提供工具，利用巨额索赔，敲诈不扶起摔倒者的人。被禽兽西方的教育兽性化的人，把中国搞得好事不行，坏事盛行。
不是人类的本性太复杂而无法治理好国家，而是移植禽兽西方的法律体系混账。被西方的教育兽性化的人建立的法律体系，讲人性，玩人权，定立的法律条款，千方百计地保护坏人，失去法律应有的威慑功能。法官和律师，知法犯法，执法谋私，丧尽天良。
长期以来，大量被西方文化兽性化的人，已经占据中国的各个领域。邪恶地从教育根基上摧毁祖国，教育孩子结果，既没有中式儒家思想，又没有西式守法思想。
庆幸的是，如今的社会治理已经演化为立法铺轨，社会沿之而行。然而，我国政府部门却用随意的临时通知取代国法,形成可怕事实,攸关国计民生国家存亡的大事,被有关部门的负责人独裁。这是导致各种犯罪屡禁不止，不断地重复做恶，催毁祖国的主因。
我们必须认识人类的本性，人类是与生俱来的自私动物，自私求生的社会活动，是发展经济支持社会存在的基本动力。没有自私本能，婴儿就不会主动吸吮乳头，死于出生。没有天生荷尔蒙驱动的男欢女爱，人类就不能繁衍。人类求生活动与集体利益冲突。
人是自私动物，公权私用在所难免。美国特斯拉马斯克，特狼扑授权，组织黑客团队，用授权的的非法手段，浅入政府机密账户，发现大量资金，被官员贪腐，事实清楚，不了了之。加拿大的现政府也拒绝审查被举报的前政府贪腐，只有习近平在铁腕打贪。
因此。在我国，要用文化立国，要创建脱离西方文化的全新文明，不要指望人的良心发现，不要试图教育国民人格高尚，而是立法，依法强制国民行为必须高尚。
追朔历史的教训，中国的孔子思想，之所以能够打造亚洲儒家文明圈，建立亚洲价值观，在于汉武帝的理性，尊董仲舒谏：罢黜百家，独尊儒术，把儒家思想社会化，政府用铁腕强制，人们言必儒家，行必儒家，科举考试还是儒家。否则，儒家思想也会与西方的众多好思想一样，只能被社会垃圾咀嚼，涨肚，折腾，发酵毒气，打嗝，放屁，污染设会。
鉴于此，在我国，要创建脱离西方文化的全新文明，必须学习汉武帝，铁腕强制人们敬畏国法规矩，遵规做人事，行为必须是人格高尚，不损伤社会的集体利益。
还有，大家必须认识到，绝大多数老外彬彬有礼，不打人不骂人，不是天生如此，而是法律的约束。在法律的强制下，不得不规规矩矩。长期如此，习惯成自然。
最好例证是日本政府支持的暴力团山口组，用暴力手段强制日本人守规矩。日本人是被强迫形成的彬彬有礼，日本人说话，不住地哈腰，口中振振有词，哈伊，哈伊。想想电影日本长官打下属嘴巴，打一下，下属立刻一个立正，哈伊。再打一下，还是如此。
此外，堂堂的美利坚共和国，也不得不默认黑社会整治监狱秩序。
2014年，美国布朗大学David Skarbek教授出书The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System：在美国的监狱，默认黑帮管理，看不见有人指挥，罪犯都规规矩矩，井井有条。一个个在社会凶煞般的罪犯，在监狱，按默认的规矩，老老实实，服服帖帖。按时就寝，静悄悄，没有人敢于喧哗。
其实，大家都知道，黑帮组织的管理十分简单，就是手法霸道，要么让反抗者失去行动能力，要么让反抗者失去思考器官。然而，在美国监狱之外，由玩人权的美国政府管理的社会，有众多携枪警察，还不如监狱内的囚犯群体的生活有秩序。
在我国不能利用黑社会，但是，鉴于人的本性，尤其是顽劣少年，可以引进新加坡沿用英国殖民时期的鞭刑。给那些屡教不改的罪犯，留下鞭痕，时时提醒，终身不敢造次。如果政府不能有效制止此类问题，人们有权质疑执政者的智力水平。
山口组公开存在的组织特性和社会价值
风萧萧 2015年10月12日 于加拿大
2014年8月24日，根据仲道新浪博客的系列文章日本泡沫经济时期的普通百姓（转帖在本文后面）写了博文 Over-heated real estate market is ruining Canadian economy from Japan mirroring Canada。
我欣赏仲道看问题的视角独特，入木三分, 直达本质。今天，再次访问仲道的新浪博客，发现了介绍日本山口组的文章。
从仲道的介绍，在日本，政府允许山口组这样的组织存在，是因为该组织具有政府无法做到的积极作用 - 用不讲理的方法来治理那些不遵守社会秩序的人。
同胞欣赏老外个个彬彬有礼，不打人，不骂人，老外并不是天生如此，而是法律约束出来的。在法律的强制之下，不得不规规矩矩。长期如此，习惯成自然。
对于那些不讲理，或者讲歪理, 不遵守社会公德的人，法律也无法约束。而日本政府支持的黑社会组织，暴力团山口组却能手到害除。
日本人更是彬彬有礼，不断地点头.除了法律约束的贡献，更有山口组的强力威慑的功劳。
有同胞游日本，感慨日本社会良好的秩序，包裹放路边，也不会丢失。其实，这并不完全是日本人素质高，而是日本的地下警察 - 山口组的功劳。如果，做坏事落到山口组手里，暴打一顿难免。而政府豢养的堂堂正正的警察就不敢这样做。
面对山口组，不服也得服，不服不行，不敢不服。所以，日本人习惯了点头哈腰，嘴里还不断地 哈伊，哈伊。
西方人抱怨，与日本谈判时，日本人不停地点头哈腰，嘴里还不断地哈伊，哈伊，不知道日本是同意还是反对。
谢谢山口组，把日本人的品格培养到极致。 更要谢谢仲道，让我们理性看待山口组。
前几天，在加拿大的超市儿买多西，有个白人老太太把精美的小包放在购物车上，我说，当心包被偷。她笑了，说: "在滑铁卢还是比较安全的。在德国可不行，有一次，我的钱包放在内衣兜里，还是被偷走了。"
2011年8月29日的文章德国小偷不老少报道，德国社会发达富裕，法制严谨规范，公民素质可圈可点，可是，说德国零售业的利润，有将近30％的损失缘于失窃。
这是为什么呢？因为，德国和法国没有类似于日本山口组那样的地下警察。
很明显，欧洲需要一个日本式的山口组。 --- 风萧萧 2015年10月12日 于加拿大
1. 山口组公开存在的组织特性
仲道/文 2015-09-11 00:28:35
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000102x8wb.html
和一个叫中村的人在同一个公司一起共事了近一年。他的体能、智能都不怎么样，但胆子非常大，从小就特别崇拜黑帮组织，从20岁成年就努力靠近黑帮，直到30岁才正式加入组织。因为犯错得到自断左手小指最上一节的惩罚，但最终还是因错误严重被踢出组织。为黑帮工作了4年。
被踢出黑帮后，收入从每月50万日元降到25万日元，老婆无法忍受这种没钱的日子，和他离了婚。
在和中村聊天时对日本山口组这类黑社会组织有了点了解。
山口组在组织形式上属于【任意团体】，类似于我们的同学会、同乡会、战友联谊会等，随意性很强，没有法人资格。有所不同的是，日本的【任意团体】尽管没有法人资格，但可以收取会员的会费，也可以从事经营性活动，从事经营性活动的团体，由团体领导人所在地的税务机关向团体领导人征收营业税。
山口组为什么被称为黑社会组织？按照日本的法律规定，无论是公司、协会、宗教团体、政党等各类法人和非法人组织，只要被日本警察署认定该组织有包庇、纵容犯罪的行为，该组织就会被定性为【指定暴力团】组织，该组织如果有法人资格，其法人资格也将随之被吊销，成为【任意团体】。现在全日本被定性为【指定暴力团】的组织一共21家。【指定暴力团】的组织成员，如果被警察署定性为【暴力团员】，此人的电话、银行账户等将在警察的监控之下。目前，全日本被定性为【暴力团员】的人员近5万人。
山口组被指定为暴力团组织，但其成员并不都是暴力团员，企业总裁、宗教法人代表、政治团体的领导人这类有着很高社会地位的人也有可能就是山口组的成员，而且是公开的，并且定期要向山口组缴纳会费。
山口组这类黑社会组织在日本不仅可以公开存在，而且还有着很大的社会影响力。在神户山口组公开存在的组织特性县（省），属于山口组成员控制的经营性组织机构，其税收占全县（省）地方税总税收的70%；由此一斑，也可以看出日本黑社会组织在日本社会中的地位如何了。
2. 山口组在日本社会中的存在价值
仲道/文 2015-09-15 20:34:04
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000102x98g.html
山口组为什么可以在日本公开存在，而且还有着很大的社会影响力？举几个简单的例子就可以理解了。
例如某条街道乱停车现象非常严重，阻碍交通、民怨很大。日本没有专职交警，有限的警力不可能天天在这里维持交通秩序，怎么办？山口组会得到政府的支持获得城市规划批准，在附件建停车场，山口组有办法让这些车都开到停车场去，交通通畅了，山口组也赚了钱；
再例如，某个公园到处是狗粪，当地居民一直找政府但得不到解决，如果谁能解决这个问题，大家就选谁当这个区的区长，想当区长的人就会找到山口组，并许诺他当区长后，把这个公园委托给山口组管理，由政府支付管理费。山口组就会成立一家从合法手续上看与山口组毫无关系的公司接手管理公园。来公园遛狗的人就要小心了，再不清理自己爱犬的狗粪那就等同于宣布爱犬死刑了。山口组让公园干净了，给居民带来了快乐。
再例如风俗店的经营，如果不是山口组经营，警察能天天去到店里抓那些想占便宜又没钱的街头混混和醉汉吗。
再例如，日本各个城市的垃圾清理和资源回收是打包后委托给私营企业负责的，政府给企业一部分资金补贴，其余的由企业从回收的资源中获取收益。这类企业基本都是黑社会组织负责经营。垃圾清理的车辆天天在市区里转，再加日本的街道又窄小，墙角、屋檐、车辆被刮碰的事会经常发生，如果遇到“老赖”怎么办？遇到那些不按时、不按规定扔垃圾的人怎么办？老实人解决不了这些“老赖”问题，所以只能是黑社会负责经营。
无论是黑社会还是白社会，既然都称其为社会，那一定有人和人之间的关系秩序存在，只是保证这种秩序的规则是否可以公开而已。是不是可以公开的秩序规则就是好规则，不可公开的就是坏规则呢，那绝对不能这么说。比如有些国家抓住小偷可以公开剁手，而山口组抓住小偷是不公开打一顿。尽管目的都是让小偷不能再犯，你能说山口组不可公开的规则不好吗。
日本黑社会在二战后得以迅速壮大，有一个客观存在的历史原因，日本二战战败后处于无政府状态时，黑社会组织在当时起到了维持社会秩序的作用，直到现在，在日本社会中，黑社会组织仍然是维持社会秩序的一个重要组成部分。
当然，山口组的恶行也是有目共睹的事实，这就如同一个人，功过是3:7开，还是2:8开，永远没有一个统一的答案。
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Over-heated real estate market is ruining Canadian economy from Japan mirroring Canada - 2
2014-08-25 22:44:42| 分类： Frank'sWritings
Frank Aug. 24, 2014, in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
The experience of Japan's Bubble Economy 1980s provides significant lessons:
The greed of human inborn nature will drive some people as profit-chasing speculators in addicting for unearned opportunistic.
The unearned speculation can distort the philosophy of people with addicting luxury life but despising for social wealth creation.
The improper economic policies will provide a favorable environment for those speculators to push the real economy into rot.
The soaring rise in the cost of living pushed by real estate speculators is squeezing the real economy out of Vancouver.
The economic plight in Vancouver shows that Canada is facing a vital historical moment for economic strategy adjusting. --- Frank Aug. 24, 2014 in Waterloo, On. Ca.
The Kondo Daisuke, A Rational Man of Japan, that is my special writing for this article to show my citing some information that touches the weakness or dark side of the people and the enterprises of Japan here is no any bad intention, but, with the hope of that can help to improve the wrongful ideology and the production efficiency for material wealth creation in Japan and world widely.
3.1.. The Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) was the largest residential provider, which was Gov.-funded in 1955.
The Residential of JHC, the photo of the original article
Faced with the economic prosperity, in 1981, The Japanese government renamed the Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) as the Urban Renaissance Agency (UR), the core work transited into the construction and improvement of urban living and infrastructure from the directly providing housing, with the hope to take the chance of economic prosperity to commercialize the residential, thereby, to improve the living conditions while meeting the needs of residential personalization, as well as, to promote the sustainable development of the economy.
In 1985, with the "Plaza Accord" forcing appreciation of the yen, the money value of Japanese people suddenly increased at least 20%, which prompting the government to start accelerating comprehensive implementation of the residential commercialization. The Commercial Banks, in large quantities, grant loans for residents purchase with slashing down loan rates. Thus, the housing prices of Japan began a rapid climb. 
The changes in interest rates on bank loans
Thus, the bubble of Real Estate was quickly blowing up. The golden age of Japanese economy was emerging.
However, when the economic booming with house prices and stock prices both soaring up, and the people of Japan were selflessly speculating in the real estate and indulging in the luxury life of economic prosperity, in March 27, Back to 123
3.2.. Plaza Accord> further deepened the long worry of Janpanese people for the depreciation of the yen; they found that the real estate was the best way to hedge against inflation, with the fueling of the incentive policies of the government, the large sums of money invested in the real estate market.
In the eyes of the vast majority of Japanese people; the land has become the most worthy assets for maintaining the value of their hard-earnings. Since then, the nature of the real estate began to change, from the need of living to be developed as the tools of the speculators for profit.
Faced with such a large market demand, major Japanese banks launched fierce competing on loans for land. Typically, banks’ mortgage financing for land was about 70% of the evaluated value of the land, but, the loan of the Hokkaido Takushoku Bank even reached 120% of the land value.
In the eyes of Japanese people, the real estate was gold mine to dig madnessly.
With the rapid rise of the prices of the real estate, throughout of the Japan, the funds of investing in the real estate were more and more, the developing projects on real estate were more and more, and bigger and bigger.
In 1988, many years’ high profit of the real estate industry even attracted the leaders of the Japanese real economy also to invest in the real estate, such as, the Toyota, Fuji Heavy Industries, Hitachi motors, etc..
On the other hand, because of over-heated real estate speculation pushing high the price of the land, the second Tomei Expressway that was under construction difficult to continue, the operating conditions of the Japan Highway Public Corporation was worsening. Also, there various local public investment and construction were encountered difficulties, also.
The wild development of the real estate has seriously impacted on the normal development of the economy. Thus, the debating about how to develop of Japan was more and more intensive. In general review, these arguments were primarily around three aspects:
1. Whether the promotion of the development of real estate industry was in line with the basic national policy?
2. Whether the development of real estate industry was able to maintain the prosperity of the Japanese economy?
3. If the answer to both questions were "NO", then, what kind of economic model was suitable for Japan?
From the appearance, the collapse of Japan's bubble economy was caused by the series of suppression policies of the government of Japan; however, the essence of those policies was the clear answer of the government for the hot debating:
1. The promotion of the development of real estate industry did not comply with the basic national policy.
2. The development of the real estate industry could not sustain the prosperity of the Japanese economy?.
After World War II, Japan coined two basic national policies that were the basic farmland system and the revitalizing strategy by the development of the industry and technology.
Socalled the basic farmland system was that Japan must maintain the amount of Japan's basic farmland to meet Japan's need for food self-sufficient. The over-heated development of the real estate was direct threatened to the amount of the basic farmland tenure.
The revitalizing strategy by the development of the industry and technology was that, after World War II, faced scorched motherland, the Japanese government made a long argument on what develop-direction should be taken?. Once, considered to emulate the Netherlands as the trade hub between Asia, Europe and America, but, after the comparison between Japan and the Netherlands, either the number of the population and the external environment was far difference, so, the idea of the trade center was completely negated finally, and then, decided to take the development of the industry and technology as the developing policy.
Japan is a country that resources heavily depend on the imports. For obtaining needed resources, Japan must exchange by the goods that other country needed.
If, there more and more funds were invested in the real estate, the entire industrial structure and employment structure would tilt to the real estate industry, then, the manufacturing industries for earnings from export would decline continuously, and thus the needed resources that exchanged from other countries would be less and less. Back to 123
More worse was that, in the 10 years, 20 years later, with the rise of the developing countries, Japan, a country with no advantage of the price in products, even, the advantage in technology would be lost, too. Since there no goods can be used for exchanging resources with other countries. So, essentially, the competition of Japanese people on real estate was just as that of the poor villagers who were fighting for the adobe thatched cottages with no electricity, no heating, no gas and no oil, which was mindlessly struggling toward more poor.
Although, the businesses and the people are both inseparable from the land, however, how much the value of the land should account for the corporate profits? And how much should account for the personal income? In this world, for such question, there was no clear standard.
For the Japan, however, due to lack of natural resources, must use high-tech products to exchange, which was a firm commone consensus in Japanese society.
It was obvious that drove economy by developing real estate, was already departed from the unchangeable policy of revitalizing strategy by the development of the industrial and technology.
Luckily, the housing price of Japan has been led by Government since the establishment of Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) in 1955 until 1985. So, there were enough social bases for Japanese government piercing the economic bubble.
3.3..Bubble Economy
Now, I think of a story in Mandarin long time ago, the famous American marketing authority Philip Kotler who once said that: For Japan, what is the panacea to heal its wounds of the war, to stand up on the war-ruins, and to become the economic powerhouse? For achieving economic advantage, Japanese waged the war, but, failed. From the pain, they learnt that, the use of economic means can achieve more brilliant achievements than that of the use of the military. This means is the marketing.
The economic miracle shows the high-quality of Japanese people. Following is a story.
In morning August 19, 2013, I had a chat with the father of my new neighbor. He said that his brother once was a top executive of a Canadian Steel Manufacturer and had twice visited to Japan for learning the experience of the advanced corporate management in 40 years ago. His brother appreciates the good quality of Japanese very much with a comparison between Japanese and Canadian in case of production accident.
When facing production equipment fails, any Japanese operator would immediately stop the production, and then, all of the people gathered together to make diagnosis and treatment, after troubleshooting, everyone immediately went back own position to resume the production. But, the Canadian was just blindly standing, there no one was attempting for troubleshooting.
Following are some memories about the industrious noble quality of Japanese people. I could not recall the source of them already, but the facts are true.
When 1973 oil crisis, the plant of the Sony Corporation was shutdown and the workers were staying home waiting for notification of work. However, the workers went back to plant to do some thing available volunteerly with the hope that company could survive.
Mr. Kazuo Inamori, the founder of Kyocera Corporation of Japan. In the newly established period of the company, an customer ordered special shape of water pipes, because there was no prior experience in the production of such pipes. In the process of heating and forming to required shape, the water pipes were burst. Then, Kazuo Inamori was holding the pipe when sleeping at night and slowly turning the pipe, so that pipes was heated evenly, and made it into required shape finally.
Now, we have convinced that it was that industrious noble nature of Japanese people created Japan's postwar economic miracle.
Now, let’s look at that new developed incredible poor quality of Japanese people, which was nourished from the profiteering zealortry during bubble economy.
3.5.. Japan’s Bubble Economy of the 1980s> June 4, 2012, the economic analyst and Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo wrote with that:
"By 2004, residential real estate in Tokyo was only worth of 10% of its late 1980s peak, while the most expensive land in Tokyo’s Ginza business district had fallen back to just 1% of its 1989 level in the same year (Barsky, 2009)."
"Similarly, the Nikkei stock index is now trading around 10,000, just little over a quarter of its all-time high."
"It has been over two decades since the popping of Japan’s economic bubble and the country is still actively battling with deflationary forces that are so powerful that near-zero interest rates, repeated bouts of quantitative easing (some call it “money printing”) and constant Yen-weakening currency interventions have barely made a dent." Back to 123
Jan 6, 2009, on the Japan Times, the report <Lessons from when the bubble burst> said with that: after the crash in late 1990, economic growth stalled various government-sponsored fiscal and economic stimulus measures, including trillions of yen in failed public works projects, did nothing to revive the economy. This was started roughly in 1991, when the effects of the stock market crash became clear.
Mar 09, 2014, Japan's deficit hits record as economic growth slows.
Mar 31, 2014, Japan factory output contracts, dims growth outlook as tax hike looms.
Apr. 28, 2014, IMF says Shinzo Abe’s economic policy is losing momentum and warns growth could stall unless structural changes to the economy are made.
Above information reveals the terrible consequences of Japan's bubble economy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe economics seems not work but with a side effect to press Japanese economy continuously toward deterioration.
3.5.1.. Plaza Accord that forced appreciation of the Yen to cause Japanese products losing competitiveness and the Bubble Economy.
The reason, as my view, all of those stimulus measures are from the macro elements of the economy, with ignoring the most basic micro elements - the quality of the people, the work-ethic of the labor, the efficiency of the production and the capacity of the innovation.
The Bubble Economy has rewritten the code of the DNA of the quality of Japanese people, from enthusiastic in hard working into enamoring in greedy speculating, thus, further affected the social moral and national’s spiritual, thereby cause the decay of whole society of Japan.
The easy gaining excessive profit from speculative activities have fueled Japanese speculative mentality with unearned ideological. It entices people keen to make living by speculating instead of hard working and less concerning on the interest of own company. I think, such negative impact is more terrible, even fatal.
In essence, the national is the decisive factor for a nation’s economic development; a nation's economic decline is the decline of the quality of its national.
Whether it is a business or a country, if its member is full of concerning for the self interest, without or lack of concerning for the public interest, it will doom to be extinction.
So, I firmly believed that the impact of the Bubble Economy on the economy is just a curable social flu, but, the impact on the national’s spiritual is incurable social cancer.
The fact of the Japanese companies loses competitiveness and falling into declining are the vivid proof. The shortsightedness and lack of entrepreneurial spirit of the management team, the lack of work enthusiasm of the employees is the main reason, and also it caused Japan's economy can not recover as expected.
3.5.1.1.. an article post on the website and to be widely reproduced on the internet. I excerpt and translate some as follow. For facilitating narrative, here, I name the writer as Jim.
The Japanese employees are working overtime almost every day, but, only for getting overtime pay rather than for the need of production.
Jim arranged a simple task to a Japanese technician who dragged two days to finish. The same work, if, in China, a new graduated young man can finish just in half an hour.
In a break time, Jim complains the matter with German colleagues, one German said, this guy is a good one, since he did not drag for a month as that of others. Another German even suspected that Japanese employee was dozing when working.
Japanese employee did not like to take responsibility, when encountering some work trouble, usually; they will look for helping with endless complaining.
German company plans to open new production lines in Japan, so, sent Japanese staff to Germany for training. The same project in China, within a year, production lines was already operating at full capacity in three shifts for 24 hours a day. But in Japan, it took two years still in the state of machine commissioning.
The workers of China have mastered all the skills within the three months training in Germany. The German teacher said: you have learnt every thing on the training plan, you may go back to China now, and we have nothing for teaching any more.
Japanese spent six months in Germany, but, after went back to Japan; they could not work properly, and complaining that Germans did not teach them well. Germans angered with that: in Germany, we were teaching you hands by hands, and you also said that you have mastered every thing already. The Japanese fought back immediately: Sorry, we forgot, our memory is too bad to remember that.
Germans were angered and collectively applied for vacation to leave Japan as a protest. The German company had to allow them to China by the name of studying for appeasing their anger.
Jim went back China with the German colleagues together. When they held a cup of coffee to watch Workshop through the window glass of the upstairs office, the production was in an orderly busy, workers were loading and unloading on the production line, the transportation-cars were running to and fro between the production sites and the storages.
All of Germans was shocked and some even exclaimed with that: my God, here is simply a heaven. One of them said with that, they (Japanese) have been sleeping for 20 years, let them sleeping for another 20 years, then, Japan will decline as a developing country, and while, China will destine to be a developed country.
Now, in many Japanese companies, employees are mostly 40-50 years old, rarely under 30. Many young Japanese are staying in unemployed. Besides the cause of the economic recession, the other cause is Japan's "special" corporate culture, which emphasizing work-qualifications and work-records, so that young Japanese have lesser work chance. Some girls have to do "compensated dating" for making money. Some boys also have to make money by doing “duck” - male prostitute.
Following, let’s look at the reason for the decline of Japanese corporations following the eyes of Mr. Kondo Daisuke.
3.5.1.2.. Sharp Corporation founded in Sep. 1912, Headquartered in Osaka, Japan. It is a multinational corporation that designs and manufactures electronic products with around 55,580 employees worldwide as of June 2011, with ranking as the fifth-largest television manufacturer in the world, after Samsung, LG, Sony, and Panasonic.
But, in recent years, Sharp Corporation declines as same as that of many other Japanese companies.
Sep. 11, 2012, Angry Gou Tai-ming> on Economic Observer Online of China, in which he criticized the “Japanese Disease” that harms Japanese companies. I excerpt and translate some as follow.
A hundred years glorious Sharp Corporation has suffered "Japanese disease." It is not only the Sharp, but the Sony, Panasonic, NEC, Sanyo, Olympus, and great many Japanese companies are the serious patients in "Japanese disease".
The nature of the "Japanese disease" is the manner of "evading responsibility" that evolved rigid organizational structure and Inward Oriented Conservative of the Japanese Companies. The direct result of the "Illness" is that illed-companies will increasingly debilitate and ultimately collapse.
For example, a Japanese company planed to develop a new product. The product development department produced a "plan book", with depicting the grand blueprint of best market potential.
However, when the "plan book" spreading in other departments of the company, this new product would face with dozens or even hundreds of blames, in the end, it did not get any support. The reason is simple: For the heads of departments, the most important thing is not how to bring new products to market, Foxconn, Gou Tai-Ming is willing to pay for acquiring 9.9% stake in Sharp Corporation.
However, 5 months later, in the afternoon Aug. 30, 2012, in Sakai City factory of Sharp Corporation located in Osaka, came out an angry voice: "why do you Japanese take so long time to make a decision? Are you really going to rebuild the company? " Back to 123
Face the raps, Sharp president Takashi Okuda and his management team heads down and keeps in silence as that of the pupils being reprimanded by their teacher. "Finally, I am again, to accept our request or not, you are better hurry to consider clear!"
After that, Guo immediately takes a private plane to leave Japan. For his sudden departure, more than 100 media reporters look at each others; and do not know what to do.
Once cooperation with a Japanese business that suffers "Japanese disease", I believe, regardless, which leaders of China's company will be angry as same as that of Gou Tai-Ming.
Assuming, a Chinese company raised an advantageous cooperation projects for both sides to a Japanese company, the local subsidiary of the Japanese company will immediately report to the International Department of the Japanese parent company. At this time, the International Department will require the local subsidiary to present a "plan book" as long as hundreds of pages. Just for completing this "plan book" will be going to spend a few months of time.
Then, after the negotiations with various departments in the head office, which cost more than six months usually, luckily, the "plan book" may finally appear on the meeting of the Board of directors once a month in the head office. However, most probably it will suffer the fate of being sentenced to death, because of all the directors are not concerns the plan book from its feasible or not, but, from the "how to use the plan, for their personal interest, rather than the interest of the company.
If, some directors believe that the implementation of the plan was no benefit for them selves, or own competitors in the company can get more benefits, they would oppose without hesitation and then put forward some reason to postpone the decision and ultimately to make the plan was dismissed or forced to ‘another day another meeting’, without the rational sense of caring about the interest of gaining or losing for the company."
It is not only Gou Tai-Ming, but, there no any boss will patiently wait for so long. When asking Japanese side a result, the answer is "still under studying." So, facing the brink of bankruptcy, the Sharp is still in the long "studying", the angry of Gou Tai-Ming is natural and reasonable.
3.5.1.3.. The sundown of Sony: Doraemon or Crayon> on a website of China, in which he criticized the ridiculous management that has been ruining Sony Corporation.
I excerpt and translate some as follow. When I translating this article, I was shocked and produced a feeling of that Sony's management is simply absurd. It warns us to review that whether have similar behavior in Canadian companies?
Now, let us to see the reason of the decline of the Sony Corporation with the narrative of Mr. Daisuke Kondo.
Feb. 6, 2014, Kazuo Hirai, the president of Sony Corporation declared: "Due to 110 billion yen huge deficit in 2013, the company will lay off 5,000 people in the coming year, while fully stop the production and the R & D of Sony VAIO-PC.
I remember that of my college days, only the best students in science majors can enter Sony. When going out of Japan, regardless of which country, we were able to see "SONY" huge billboard and young people using "walkman". At that time, Sony is our Japanese pride. However, now?
For this problem, one of my college classmates, now a Sony employee replied with that:
"In the company, there one by one meetings are from morning to night, after the meetings, everyone must deal with at least 100 internal mails from the company. So, Sony is not an electronics manufacturer, but a downright bureaucracy! Only those people, who are the 'Mr. Nice Guy' without any faults, could be promoted. Such a Sony could not develop new products that can shine the world any more?”
"Our company has a specialized team in charge of new product development against the rival of Apple of the United States. There was I admired executive who is in charge of the team. One day, his immediate leader of a director of Board even ordered him to stop the investment of 'no value' (ie, to give up the R & D) as soon as possible to vanquish to Apple. The executive retorted: Do you have self-esteem as a member of Sony? The Director even contemptuously asked: ‘your self-esteem can help company making money, right? Heard of the answer of a director of Board, the executive immediately decided to resign."
In recent years, the elite who left Sony were not only the executive alone. In 2006, the former managing director who was responsible for "AIBO" R & D of futuristic robots was demobilized; the reason was that there members of board were questioning that ‘How much economic benefit that the robot R & D can bring to Sony? In 2007, former chairman and CEO of the Sony Computer Entertainment Inc., Mr. Ken Kutarag who known as the "Father of the PS (PlayStation)" was also retired after the expiry of his Job tenure.
In the booming period of before, Sony company once gathered a large number of "Doraemon" talents - they can come up with all kinds of whimsy from their "Mind Treasure Bag", and then to materialize them into a variety of future products. But now, unfortunately, the Sony is filled with the people who work with lips only as that of the "Crayon"
Thanks Mr. Daisuke Kondo for his careful observation and artful description.
From above lessons, I firmly believed that, no doubt, such Japanese diseases of the employee lazy, the "evading responsibility", and more, is an objective results of the Japanese subjective selfish ideological, which was developed from the Holy Baptism by Japan’s Bubble Economy 1980s.
Because of that, if, before the Japan’s Bubble Economy, the Japanese people and the companies had infected these kind diseases, the Japan would never be developed as the economic powerhouse.
The aftermath of the bubble economy is still hurting all aspects of Japanese society, from the social ideological to the personal spiritual, from the macro national economy to the micro family life, from the world class companies to the ordinary employees, and more.
The sad facts of Japan made me firmly believed: it is that national’s quality decides the fate of the nation. And it is that social moral, social ideological impacts the quality of the national in a great extent.
Japan, one misstep in opening real estate market, can not get rid of the nightmare of the bubble economy.
Vancouver, Canada must remain sober on dealing with real estate market.
In view of the terrible lessons of Japan, whether we should follow the suggestion of Peter Ladner to directly introduce restrictions for foreign property buyers to avoid what happened in Japan by cooling down Vancouver’s over-heated real estate?
Of course, the restriction as Peter Ladner suggested is necessary. However, in consideration of the terrible lessons of Japan, we should design a proper solution to prevent the heavy side effect of the restriction. This is significant, but a thorny issue.
If we throw ourselves into effort, any problem will have a suitable solution. I will discuss it in other article.
日本泡沫經濟時期的普通百姓
本文轉載自「仲道的BLOG」，原文作者為「仲道」
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000100g72w.html
本文來自於大陸的博客「仲道」的部落格
我個人認為寫得非常好
描述日本在1990年代泡沫經濟時期的時候整個時空背景環境和人民對於泡沫經濟時期中的整體大環境體驗描寫得非常深刻
我覺得非常適合一般的投資人去閱讀並瞭解當初日本泡沫經濟的背景
以及近十年來中國崛起的時候為什麼這麼害怕複製當時候的日本泡沫經濟？
老美也為什麼要想方設法的逼人民幣強力升值但中國政府死守底線？
又為什麼這幾年全世界的房地產瘋狂飆升？
這篇文章中有很多養分
特地轉錄到部落格中讓大家閱讀
也可以讓大家去瞭解一下什麼是房地產和經濟泡沫
以及現行台灣的房地產發展是不是也有相似的軌跡可供依循參考
如欲再深究日本泡沫經濟背景的投資人
建議可以再到GOOGLE或是維基百科搜尋日本泡沫經濟的起因和當初重要日本與美國在1985年簽訂重要的「廣場協議」
其後對日本經濟造成重大衝擊的歷史背景
日本泡沫經濟時期的普通百姓
96年初，到日本的第一天，住在一棟樓裡的鄰居須藤用茶盤端著沏好的抹茶來到我的房間，這可能是他獨有的“初次見面、彼此認識一下”的表達方式。語言溝通上的障礙也只能是簡單的十幾分鐘“寒暄”，須藤把他房間裡的電話給了我，讓我告訴家里人可以通過他的電話和我聯繫。
在我沒有裝電話的近兩個月的時間裡，去須藤那裡接過幾次電話，每次接完電話我都帶點東西過去感謝一下。這樣一來，每個星期抽1、2個小時坐下來聊聊天就成了一種習慣。
須藤48歲，是一家從事商業設施管理的管理員，每月工資40多萬日元。我當時很奇怪，他的工資不算低，又是獨身，為什麼還會住在這樣一棟月租金只有3萬多日元、一居(12㎡)一廚(4㎡)一衛(3㎡ )、5人合用一個浴室的樓房裡呢？(如下圖)
圖１
須藤對我這種疑問表示非常理解，他告訴我說，在日本經濟泡沫時期的88年，他花6000萬日元購買了一套二層別墅。現在這套別墅的價格已經 跌到了3000萬日元。他把別墅已經出租出去了。他住現在這樣的房子是為了省下錢來和別墅的租金合在一起還銀行的貸款。等他65歲的時候就可以還清貸款， 然後再把房子抵押出去得到養老送終的錢。不過，他的妻子並不願意和他一起住這樣的房子，離婚了。
97年，進入大學院後認識了搞金屬材料研究的博士生小董(中國人)，有一天他開車帶我到一個很荒涼的地方去摘柿子。我問他這裡的柿子為什麼可以 隨便摘，他說，這是他導師在泡沫經濟時期買的地，按那個時期的發展規劃，這裡應該可以劃入東京通勤圈的範圍了，很遺憾，你看看現在，還是這麼荒涼，也只有 這搞金屬研究的教授腦袋才這麼“硬”，才會相信東京圈會擴大到這裡。
小董又說：在研究室做實驗的時候，教授沒事兒總叨叨這塊地，看來這塊地讓他挺煩心。教授在89年以5萬日元/㎡買了這塊地，一共是1.5億日 元。教授說如果現在有人出1個億，他就賣。93年有人出價2.5萬日元/㎡，教授捨不得，現在，2萬都找不到買主了。種了這些柿子樹還沒時間照料，我們到 這摘柿子吃就是幫他忙了。
我注意看了看這塊地，除了幾十棵柿子樹，其它都是荒草。當時來的高興勁兒晾了一大半。
後來在02年做店鋪選址調查時又路過這裡，感覺還是以前的老樣子。我順路到當地的公共圖書館查了一下，這塊地屬於市街化調整區域，這種區域內的 土地並不完全屬於建設用地，如果要化為建設用地，當地的政府部門必須投資進行給排水、液化氣、5.2米以上寬度的道路等基礎設施建設。教授買這裡的土地， 大概是基於泡沫經濟時期的城市發展速度，要不了幾年，政府部門就會投資把這裡化為建設用地了。如果真如教授所料，地價至少要漲到10萬1平米，再如果化成 了建設用地中的商業用地，30萬/㎡也完全可能。很可惜，教授這個“賭注”沒押對。
99年，在就職的公司裡認識了川瀨，他和我都愛好登山，我加入了他們的登山俱樂部，一般是星期六的早晨6點在山下集合，10點多登山結束後到溫泉洗洗澡回家。
有一次三連休，俱樂部組織去日光登山，日光是日本著名的旅遊觀光地，不少成員都帶了自己的家人或朋友。
我們從山上下來後，沒有去登山的人已經在溫泉旅館等候了，這其中有川瀨的妻子，川瀨把我介紹給她，並邀請我和他們一起吃晚飯。自從見了川瀨的妻子，我再看川瀨的時候，總感覺他是一個很神秘的人物。
川瀨已經50歲，但只是公司裡一個非常普通的工程師，可他的妻子不僅長得漂亮而且言談舉止完全是一個名門形象。在日光，川瀨的妻子穿的是和服， 日本女人穿和服時的走路姿勢、坐姿、目光等等都是有講究的，沒有受過專門訓練的人裝不出來。接受這種訓練的一般是“大家”的女孩子、或者是準備成為“大家 媳婦”的女子家政大學的學生。在大學院我遇到過來自女子家政大學的研究生，相比之下，川瀨的妻子可以做這些“大家媳婦”的老師。
和川瀨一起登山的次數越多，越是想知道他到底是個什麼人，可又不便直接問，擔心問不好還有可能把關係搞僵了。
過了一段時間，有機會和關口一起去施工現場，他來這個公司已經9年了，我和他的私人關係不錯，路上就我們兩個人，這是個機會，我說：“在日光見 到了川瀨的妻子，她穿和服的樣子和我平時看到的其她人真不一樣，魅力十足，一定是“大家”出身吧”，關口說：“不知道，不過，川瀨以前可是社長，妻子一定 錯不了”，我又問川瀨為什麼成了一個普通職員時，看關口不太樂意回答，我也就不好再問。
時間長了，從人們的只言片語中，對川瀨有了一個基本的了解。川瀨從東京理工大畢業後就來到我就職的這個公司，不到40歲就成了公司的核心技術人 員，一直在東京品川、公司總部工作。對公司發展貢獻很大，基本工資近百萬日元。85年，也就是泡沫經濟形成初期，川瀨辭職創辦了一家住宅製作工廠。一起步 就發展很順利，到88年，川瀨不僅貸款擴大了生產規模，同時在東京的一等地還購買了一套近2億日元的高檔公寓。沒想到，90年後，形勢急轉直下，工廠的訂 單幾乎為零。川瀨1億2千萬把東京的公寓抵押給了銀行，希望度過難關、保住工廠。可最終還是在97年破產了。這個公司的高層念川瀨的能力和多年的交情又讓 他又回到公司，不過總部是回不去了，工資聽說只有40萬。
因為在自己的身邊，經常聽到泡沫經濟時期有關購地、購房的事兒，就開始琢磨：日本的一個普通百姓隨便說句話都要從腦子裡過一下，搞不懂的事情不 會做，那麼，日本的地價、房價為什麼會上漲？是什麼原因讓他們堅信地價、房價還會漲？他們的工資並不高，房價已經超出了他們的正常支付能力，為什麼還會降 低其它方面的生活水平來買地、買房呢？
日本的房價為什麼會上漲？不少人認為是緣於1985年9月的“廣場協議”。就這麼一個有關貨幣匯率的協議就能導致日本人瘋狂貸款購房？如果百姓 無錢銀行憑什麼貸款給你？日本百姓又憑什麼堅信地價、房價還會漲？所以說，“廣場協議”充其量只能說是“導火索”，那麼“炸彈”是如何形成的呢？也就是說 日本百姓的購房款來自何方？對於這些疑問，在2000年公司忘年會上，我得到了一個答案。
2000年底，公司終於發獎金了，已經連續三年沒發獎金了。公司大概是希望把好人做到底，年底的忘年會也由公司出面來組織，這和前幾年職員自發組織的忘年會相比，檔次也高了不少。
週末的下午6點到9點，大家喝完了忘年會的第一場酒，接著來到卡拉OK包房。喝得醉醺醺的吉田問我是不是來過這種地方。
我說：“來過，但是可沒有這麼高檔”，
吉田一聽哈哈大笑：“這種地方也算高檔，泡沫的時候，公司的忘年會是要到銀座去的”。
“是嗎，忘年會能到銀座開，咱們公司太有錢了”，
“不僅僅是咱們公司，全日本的公司都一樣，那個時候的銀座人滿為患，至少要提前半年預定才有位子”，
“真是太好了，我怎麼沒趕上呢，真遺憾，怎麼會一下子就不景氣了呢？”
“這個你要怪罪的話，你就怪罪中國吧，我們被中國給騙了”，
吉田的回答讓我當時沒反應過來，以為吉田喝醉了。
這時，關口已經扯著嗓子開唱了，吉田也開始忙著用桌上的各種酒勾兌自己喜歡的味道。儘管是高興的日子，吉田大概又要藉酒澆愁了，他和須藤的情況很類似，所不同的是須藤在泡沫時買的是別墅，吉田買的是東京的公寓，兩人現在住著類似的房子。
在大學院的時候就經常聽小董談起日本泡沫經濟時期的繁榮景象。小董是90年來的日本，他說：他剛來的時候，每天到學校來接留學生去打工的車，平 均2個小時就一趟，1小時的工資一般是1200-1500日元，有些還可以當日結算，掙錢實在是太容易了，和現在大不相同。因為勞動力嚴重缺乏，日本政府 對很多南美和其它一些國家的偷渡者，以及簽證到期不回國的人也是睜隻眼閉隻眼。泡沫經濟崩潰會，日本的入國管理局才開始驅趕這些人。
不過，至於當時日本為什麼會如此繁榮，大家覺得本來就是這樣，在留學生中也極少議論這些問題，更不會去想這和中國有什麼關係。
自從忘年會上聽吉田說日本的泡沫繁榮是因為中國，不管是不是醉話，我還是想弄個明白。
登山的時候，我問川瀨，日本泡沫經濟和中國有什麼關係？
川瀨說：“中國開放以後，日本的電器、汽車開始大批量出口中國，去過中國的日本人說，中國和日本相比至少相差30年，中國有12億人，如果我們給中國造東西，達到日本現在的水平那得要造多少年。所以很多日本人就堅信在自己的有生之年日本經濟會一直繁榮下去”。
“果然如此，記得我一個鄰居為了買一台東芝雙缸洗衣機，一大早4點去排隊”川瀨的話讓我想起了中國改革開放初期的一些事。當時我國還沒有彩電、 錄像機、冰箱、洗衣機等等這類家電的生產線，市場上的日本電器無論是非法走私貨還是合法進口貨，最終都要出自日本的工廠。這對日本來說中國這個市場實 在是太大了。
我接著說：“想必那個時候，大家的收入一定非常高了”，
“是啊！最不景氣的公司，每年的獎金也有半年的工資”，
“掙這麼多的錢，大概也只能買地買房了”，
“是啊！每年的獎金就可以還購房按揭了，誰會想到會發生後來的事情呢”。
日本在85年之前，住宅市場並非完全商業化的市場，80%以上的普通工薪家庭住的都是公團房、縣營房、市營房、社宅等等這類公益性住房。在這其中，1955年日本政府設立的【日本住宅公團】又是最大的住宅提供者。
上個世紀70年代末，日本的汽車、家電製造技術不僅可以與歐美抗衡，有些已經處於國際領先地位，產品開始大量出口海外。1981年，“日本住宅 工團”更名為“住宅、都市整備公團”，工作核心由直接提供住宅轉型為建設和改良城市居住基礎設施。日本住宅公團的工作轉型是日本政府希望藉日本產品大量出 口海外給日本經濟帶來繁榮的機會，為住宅商品化所作的準備，通過住宅商品化滿足國內住宅個性化需求，由此提高日本國民的居住條件。
圖２
85年的“廣場協議”讓日本人口袋裡的錢一下子增加了至少20%，促使日本政府開始加速全面推行住宅商品化，商業銀行開始大量為居民購房發放貸款，貸款利率大幅下調(見下圖)。日本的房價也由此開始了急速攀升。
日本購房貸款利率
在日本經濟一片繁榮，房價不斷攀升中到了90年，日本各大銀行不僅突然停止購房貸款，並大幅提高原來的購房貸款利率。92年開始徵收地價稅(徵 收額度為財產繼承稅評估值的0.3%)。日本政府為什麼要出台這樣的經濟政策？日本汽車、家電等其它行業的繁榮景象為什麼也突然消失了？這意味著日本經濟 由此開始步入“泥潭”嗎？又如何看待日本經濟“空白”的十年呢？
在房價、股價一路高漲，日本經濟一片繁榮的90年3月27日，日本銀行出台了《控制不動產融資總量的通知》，這一《通知》被後來稱為日本泡沫經 濟崩潰的“發火點”，房價，股價掉頭下跌(見下圖)。當年8月，日本銀行又把短期貸款利率上調到6%。更有甚的是92年大藏省又出台了地價稅，讓已經一蹶 不振的不動產業更是雪上加霜，高端百貨業因其店址位於城市最繁華的地段，每年0.3%的地價稅竟然超過商品利潤的20%，地價稅對房價的抑制力可見一斑。
日經指數走勢圖
日本政府為什麼要出台這樣的金融政策，是他們沒有想到這些政策會導致樓市、股市大跌。那麼，在樓市、股市已經開始暴跌的92年，大藏省為什麼還要出台地價稅，讓不動產業絲毫得不到喘息的機會呢？
有不少人認為：90年之後的幾年，日本政府一連的經濟政策把日本經濟推入不能自拔的“泥潭”，讓整個日本經濟出現“空白”的十年(90年中期-2000年) 。
準確地說：不是90年的政策有問題，而是85年日本全面開放不動產市場，寄希望通過不動產來讓日本經濟繼續保持高速發展的政策有問題。在不動產 市場全面開放的85年-89年，日本以及世界的變化讓日本政府清楚的看到了85年所犯這一政策錯誤的嚴重性。90年以後的政策不過是對85年所犯錯誤的緊 急更正。
讓我關注有關日本泡沫經濟的諸多論說，並認可上面的這種論斷，還得從和吉田的一次聊天說起。
六大都市地價及變動率走勢圖
每次和吉田一起去施工現場，他都會以“一早兒，稍微喝了點兒”為藉口，躺在車上看漫畫。這次，他上車就坐到了駕駛位上，我覺得挺奇怪，猜想他一 定有什麼事兒。還真是，剛進東京不久他就下了高速，在東京市區內狹窄的小路上繞來繞去，非常熟悉的把車停在了一棟30多層的公寓旁邊，讓我稍等他一下。
我下車在四周轉了轉，心裡琢磨：這可能就是吉田買的公寓，這種地段的住宅不會便宜，看來吉田在泡沫時期真發了不少獎金。
過了十幾分鐘，吉田回來對我說：“一來這裡我就心煩，安全第一，拜託了”。他這是又打算躺旁邊看漫畫了，他很隨便，和他說話也就比較直來直去。
我一邊開車一邊問他：“這是你買的公寓？”
“是。”
“這裡真是東京不錯的住宅專用地，離地鐵站很近而且還很安靜。”
吉田一聽很得意：“那當然，當時交了定金來抽籤的人是總套數的20倍，”
“你真夠幸運的。”
“幸運談不上，我沒有抽籤，咱們公司是這棟公寓的投資人之一。”
我確實有點吃驚：“怎麼，咱們公司在泡沫時期也投資不動產？”
“這有什麼奇怪，如果不是各行各業都投資不動產，不動產泡沫怎麼會那麼大。”
“看來你要參加抽籤就好了，也許抽不上，等兩年情況就截然不同了。”
“不可能，買不上這個樓盤，還要買別的樓盤，總之，那一年是下定決心一定要買。”
“看來，你的泡沫煩心病是命中註定了。”
“哈哈～～，對，讓我煩惱的信號不是從這棟樓裡發射過來，就是從那棟樓裡發射過來，總之，這種煩惱一定是要有的。”
“哈哈～～，在日本，有你這種煩惱的人太多了，應該推舉一個能讓大家消除煩惱的人當總理大臣。”
“我死的那一天就是這個總理大臣的誕生日。”
“哈哈～～，既然你一輩子都住不進自己買的公寓裡，為什麼不賣了呢？”
“開玩笑，我交了首付，還支付了十年的按揭，怎麼能賣呢？”
“如果房價剛開始下跌的時候，你就賣掉，也就不會有現在的煩惱了。”
“是啊！可我不是神，誰會想到泡沫已經崩了十年了，房價不但不漲，還在一直下跌呢。”
“泡沫剛崩的時候，也沒什麼人著急賣房，是不是大家都相信房價還有上漲的可能。”
“是，至少是堅信房價不會下跌的這麼厲害。”
“既然如此，也應該有一個相信房價不會下跌的理由吧？”
吉田想了一下說：“相信的理由很多，每個人也有自己的想法，但基本上還是依據一般的常識性判斷。日本經濟主要是依靠出口，日元升值對產品出口形成嚴重妨礙，政府肯定要增發貨幣使日元貶值，如果每年持續增發貨幣，恢復到原來日元兌換美元的匯率標准上，房價不會降。”
“那為什麼不增發貨幣呢”
“對呀！十年過去了，地價、房價一直下跌，日本的不動產價值以每年100兆、100兆的速度減少，這總理大臣換了好幾個，絲毫也看不到政府要增發貨幣的意思，真搞不懂這幫混蛋腦子裡在想什麼。”
“政府既然堅持不增發貨幣也應該有不增發的理由吧，你怎麼看？”
“這我可不知道，這是錢！！！大家都能看明白了就不是錢了。”
“哈哈～～，看來，吉田桑要擺脫煩惱只能等下回看不明白的泡沫到來了。”
吉田長嘆了一聲：“不可能再有了，再來一次泡沫，日本人連糧食都吃不上了。”
“日本工業這麼發達，可以進口糧食。”
“開玩笑，那日本不就成了農業國的奴隸了嗎？”
“照你這麼說，政府急忙把地產泡沫捅破也是因為農地？”
“不一定是全部，但這肯定是一個非常重要的原因，這些農村的地主最討厭，泡沫的時候，一窩蜂的要在農地上蓋房子，這不等於是讓大家沒糧食吃嗎。”
“照此來說，如果從農地這個角度看，政府不增發貨幣也是有道理的。”
“對！也應該警告警告這幫地主，不許打農田的主意。可是讓我也一起跟著倒霉。”
自從聽吉田說了這番話後，對90年樓市、股市暴跌是由於日本政府金融政策不當所造成的說法產生了懷疑，我開始相信日本政府不顧一切捅破房地產泡沫是有目的的，我希望得到一個答案。所以後來，就一直比較留意有關這方面的新聞、記事。
房地產是不是有泡沫是以實體經濟為參照物，房地產價值脫離了實體經濟的支撐就被認為是泡沫。
但是，房地產泡沫一定會崩潰，或者說房地產泡沫一定要以房價暴跌的方式來結束，這在經濟學上是找不到依據的。脫離了實體經濟支撐的房地產泡沫一定要被捅破嗎？答案也是不一定的。
在經歷了房地產泡沫崩潰的日本學術界比較主流的觀點是：房地產泡沫是不是需要被捅破主要由社會因素來決定。那麼，日本為什麼要捅破泡沫呢？
進入上個世紀80年代，伴隨中國的大門開放，一直持續繁榮的日本經濟也進入了鼎盛期。
但是，中國及其它發展中國家的彩電、冰箱等生產線的投產，讓日本政府清楚的看到了，發展中國家的低價格很快要對日本的製造業構成致命的打擊。在 單純的價格競爭面前，日本只有死路一條。日本依靠先進的工業製造技術、通過來料加工、出口工業製品帶動日本經濟繁榮的路，已經看到了盡頭。
在日本政府意識到了日本所面臨的困境，但且還沒有找到應對方法的時候，“廣場協議”更是給了日本當頭一棒。使得給日本經濟帶來繁榮的製造業，陷入了既要與發展中國家的低價格抗爭，又要承受日元升值重壓的兩難境地。要保持日本經濟繼續高速增長，必須尋找新的經濟增長點。
不動產！讓日本人已經鼓鼓的腰包去投資不動產，無疑是讓日本經濟解“燃眉之急”的有效通道。開啟商業化的不動產市場，對日本農村的地主是一個最大的利好，當時執政黨(自民黨)的最大支持者就是以地主為核心的農協。
85年9月的“廣場協議”簽署後，本來就已經擔心日元貶值的日本國民，對於政府諸多的不動產優惠政策，就如同找到了一個可以讓紙幣保值的避風港，把大筆資金投入不動產市場。
當大筆的資金湧入不動產市場而使不動產開始升值的瞬間，一個潘多拉盒子——保有需求被打開了。日本的不動產屬性開始了悄然的改變，由[使用需 求]轉向[保有需求]，後果也就可想而知了。再加86年高達2位數的貨幣增發量，到了87年，在絕大部分日本人眼裡，土地已經成了最值得保有的資產。
面對如此之大的市場需求，日本各大銀行對土地展開了激烈爭奪。通常情況下，銀行對土地抵押融資是按土地評價值的70%貸出，北海道拓值銀行以120%提供融資，由此可見土地在銀行眼裡已經成了金礦。
隨著日本不動產價格的急速攀升，投向不動產的資金也越來越多，全國的不動產開發項目一個賽過一個大，整個日本“鶯歌燕舞”，連銀座這種日本最高檔的紅燈區也成了普通人可以光顧的地方。
但另一面，正在建設的第二東名高速因地價高漲，計劃難於推進。日本道路公團的經營狀況極度惡化。各地方性的公共投資建設也因地價高漲而困難重重。
88年，不動產業持續數年的高額利潤讓豐田汽車、富士重工、日立電機等等這些日本實體經濟的領頭羊再也按耐不住，開始大舉進入不動產業。
不動產的高速發展已經嚴重影響到了日本經濟的未來發展方向。因此，圍繞日本應如何發展的爭論越來越激烈。如果把這些爭論歸納一下，爭論主要是圍繞3個方面展開：
1. 促進不動產業的發展是否符合日本的基本國策？
2. 不動產業的發展是否能保持日本經濟的持續繁榮？
3. 如果對以上兩個問題的回答都是“NO”，那麼什麼樣的經濟模式更適合於日本？
1990年日本泡沫經濟崩潰，表面上看是日本政府一連串的經濟政策所致，其政策實質是日本政府對以上爭論的一個明確回答。
二戰以後，日本有兩個被稱為不變的基本國策，一個是基本農田制度，一個是科技興國戰略。
所謂的基本農田制就是日本的基本農田保有量必須能夠滿足日本的糧食自給自足，不能在糧食問題上受制於他國。不動產開發的持續高漲，直接威脅到了日本基本農田的保有量。
所謂科技興國戰略，是二戰後，日本政府對已經是一片焦土、百廢待興的日本應向什麼方向發展做過長時間的論證。曾一度想效仿荷蘭成為亞洲與歐美之 間的貿易集散地。但考慮日本與荷蘭在人口數量與所處外部環境等方面相差甚遠，貿易集散地的構想被徹底否定，最終決定走工業科技興國的道路。
依靠不動產來拉動日本經濟的發展，很顯然是已經背離了工業科技興國這個不變國策。
日本是一個資源嚴重依賴進口的國家。要獲取資源，日本必須要用他國需要的商品來進行交換。如果投向不動產的資金越來越多，日本整個產業結構和就 業結構就會向不動產業傾斜。出口創彙的製造業就會萎縮，能夠從他國獲取的資源也就越來越少。10年、20年後，隨著發展中國家的崛起，本無價格優勢的日本 產品連技術優勢也將失去。再沒有了可以和別國交換的商品，日本人對不動產的爭奪就如同貧窮的村民去爭奪無電、無暖、無氣、無油的土坯草房。
所以，儘管企業和人都離不開土地，土地的價值應該占到企業利潤的多少？應該占到個人收入的多少？這在世界上也沒有標準。但是，日本資源匱乏必須 用高技術含量的產品去交換，這在日本社會是一種共識。日本的住宅市場價格，自55年設立日本住宅公團到85年一直就是由政府主導。所以，日本政府把泡沫捅 破有足夠的社會基礎。還想再重複說明的一點是：談論房地產是不是有泡沫，首先要界定房地產是被當做“工具”來使用還是被當做“古董”來收藏。只有被當做 “工具”時，房價才能和實體經濟直接聯繫在一起。如果被當做“古董”，房價和實體經濟就沒有了直接聯繫。如果沒有這樣的界定，房地產有無泡沫也就無法談 起，結果只能是各說各話。
