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Justin Trudeau:加拿大历史上第一对父子总理

已有 769 次阅读2015-10-24 14:31 |个人分类:政治 法律| 加拿大, 历史

 Trudeau promised to stop bombing IS. He needs to explain why.

 Trudeau follows in father's footsteps as leader for generational change

It's back to the future as Trudeau the younger becomes standard-bearer for younger generations

By Louise Elliott, CBC News Posted: Oct 24, 2015 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: Oct 24, 2015 11:28 AM ET

When Justin Trudeau tweeted a picture of himself and two of his children in a DeLorean this week, it struck a chord not only with younger voters who remember the Back to the Future films, but among older voters who remember Pierre Elliott Trudeau's rise to office in 1968.

The humorous tweet captured the essence of the younger Trudeau's status as the first Generation-X prime minister, and all the pop-culture cachet that goes with it.

The time-travel reference also conjured the notion of the young Trudeau energetically following in the footsteps of his father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who, rightly or not, is associated with the fractious baby boomer generation of the 1960s, and its desire for change.

Pierre Elliott Trudeau CBC

Pierre Elliott Trudeau's popularity with young voters helped maintain his support in the 1970s. (CBC)

Justin Trudeau's new status as the standard-bearer for Gen-Xers, Gen-Yers and millennials is indisputable, says longtime Liberal John Duffy, founder of Toronto government relations firm StrategyCorp and unofficial historian for his party.

"There's no question he's now regarded as one of their own," said the author of Fights of Our Lives, a behind-the-scenes chronicle of several Canadian election campaigns.

Duffy added the Trudeau campaign most definitely appealed to younger voters.

"From the first days of observing Trudeau's campaign, I certainly saw a clarity about contemporary Canada that felt youthful to me, and I knew would appeal with first-time voters ... on everything from doctor-assisted end of life, through to LGBT issues, to marijuana and, to a degree, environmental issues as well." 

Of course, Trudeau's careful cultivation of young voters began long before the campaign, and was not restricted to hitting those hot-button issues. The leader has spent years consulting students in schools and universities, revitalizing the once-publicly funded Katimavik youth program, and crafting a social media strategy that has tremendous appeal for first-time voters.

'1st Gen-X prime minister'

All of that appears to have paid off in the campaign. Although a detailed breakdown of voter turnout by age is not yet available from Elections Canada, higher turnout on campuses, and at polling stations in general, probably means a greater number of young people voted this time.

"Justin Trudeau is our first Gen-X prime minister. He is representative of an entirely new era in Canadian politics that, frankly, none of the other leaders would have been capable of ushering in," said Ian Capstick, a partner at the Ottawa public relations firm MediaStyle.

Capstick, a former NDP staffer whose firm helped market and communicate Elections Canada's advance-poll project on university campuses this year, says it drew 72,000 students to campus ballot boxes.

"So I think for younger Canadians they are going to look to [Trudeau] and have a considerable amount of hope. But the flip side is of course that hope may turn into disappointment if all of the promises and expectations that Mr. Trudeau has lined up through the election aren't fully met."

To retain the respect of younger voters, Capstick says Trudeau must deliver on two key promises.

"[He must deliver on] changing the way we vote because every young person is fundamentally disenfranchised, and they know it and they're frustrated by it," he said. "And then second: marijuana. If he doesn't legalize marijuana and bring in a regulated tax regime, he will be an absolute failure in the eyes of young people, period."

Capstick likens the marijuana issue to Pierre Trudeau's earlier decision to decriminalize homosexuality, with his now-famous phrase, "there's no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation." That issue, along with the legalization of contraception, played well to the younger generation of voters in the elder Trudeau's day.

Don't forget seniors

Other issues that matter to youth, Capstick says, include:

  • Overall societal fairness, as it pertains to the job market.
  • Tuition fees.
  • Social justice for native people, as represented by young people's embrace of the call for an inquiry into missing and murdered indigenous women. An inquiry is another of Trudeau's promises.
CANADA-ELECTION/

Observers caution that as prime minister, Justin Trudeau can't focus exclusively on the concerns of young people - and in fact, seniors seem to have voted in large numbers for the Liberal leader. (Reuters)

But even with all these expectations stacked up among young voters, Duffy argues it would be a mistake for Trudeau or his strategists to believe young people alone were responsible for his surprising majority win.

"What we do know is that almost every poll had the Liberals leading, by the end of [the campaign] in every demographic category, including seniors. In fact a lot of the shift in the final week was among seniors," he said. "This was across the board: a mass migration, not a children's crusade. While I think the effect is to bring a new generation of political faces to power, that's not the cause. The cause is the entire country moving for change."

The same could be said of Pierre Trudeau's election victory in 1968, Duffy said, and the ascendance of Bill Clinton in the U.S. in the 1990s. While young voters made up a significant part of the elder Trudeau's support, so did older and rural voters, particularly in Quebec, he notes.

Still, to remain relevant over time, Justin Trudeau can't afford to lose touch with what is perhaps his most passionately engaged demographic.

That won't be easy, particularly on the issue of youth unemployment, says Patrick Gossage, who served as an aide to Pierre Trudeau in the 1970s and is a longtime partner at the Toronto public relations firm Media Profile.

"Young people will be watching for some approach to the insoluble problem of jobs for young people. Pretty hard to deliver on that.... That's not something the federal government has a lot to do with."

Style counts

The legalization of marijuana will also be tough to implement.

"Marijuana will be extremely difficult, and if he doesn't come up with a solution to that in the first year, that will be very hard for him to get over," he added. "Young people will be watching for that very closely."

But, like his father before him, Gossage says Justin Trudeau's ultimate appeal among youth won't just depend on policy, but style. 

He recalls how the charismatic appeal of Trudeau helped him maintain support among youth through some difficult times in the 1970s.

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    VAULT Trudeaumania1:06

    "I think it was more his image, and his physicality, and his unpredictability that appealed to young people, and that's certainly a trait he shares with Justin," he said. He recalled Trudeau — who was then not a young man but rather in his late 50s and early 60s — still playing frisbee with reporters on the plane.

    In fact, Duffy argues it's not youthfulness that helps leaders like Trudeau senior and junior to bring in a more contemporary approach to politics. Rather, it's their status as relative newcomers to politics.

    "When you come in fresh like Justin Trudeau has or like his father did, you can be really up to date. What's really awkward is when someone who's been around for a long time starts trying to sound up to date," he said.

    NDP Leader Tom Mulcair found himself in that position sometimes, Duffy said, "trying to sound like he's hip with the thing on the internet... but that didn't help with his overall presentation."

        杜鲁多:加拿大历史上第一对父子总理

      2015年10月24日 12:24 财新网博客 作者:陶短房

    当地时间10月19日,加拿大联邦立法选举投票并产生初步结果,据初步统计,在全部338个议席中,联邦自由党赢得过半的184席,获得了单独组建联邦政府的资格,该党党领小杜鲁多(Justin Trudeau)将成为加拿大未来4年的新总理。

    联邦自由党是加拿大老牌政党,2006年以前曾长期执政,并有“天然执政党”的美誉,但就在那一年,联邦自由党败给了现任总理哈珀(Stephen Harper)所领导的联邦保守党,并在2008/2011两届大选中节节败退,不仅让对手从少数执政党(获得议席不过半,但因比对手多且对手无法组成联 合政府而获得组阁权)变成多数执政党,自己更在2011年耻辱性地只剩下36个议席(后来更减少到34个),沦为议会第三大党。此次大选,联邦自由党“翻 身”成功,赢得一场酣畅淋漓的大胜,就连传统上亲保守党的加拿大媒体《国家邮报》也惊呼,这“可能是加拿大历史上最伟大的政治卷土重来”。

    加拿大 51网

    老杜鲁多与他的三个儿子。

    而领导联邦自由党获得这场大胜的领军人物小杜鲁多则创造了一项历史:他和他的父亲老杜鲁多(Pierre Elliott Trudeau),成为加拿大建国以来首对“父子总理”。

    老杜鲁多是魁北克省人,母语是法语,是加拿大二战后任职时间最长的联邦总理。他是律师出身,从皮尔逊(Lester B. Pearson,联邦自由党著名政治家,前总理,多伦多国际机场以他名字命名)的国会秘书、司法部长起家,1968年当选联邦总理,直至1984年才“谢幕”,刨去期间不到1年的“空窗期”,担任总理长达16年之久。

    老杜鲁多才智过人,能力突出,具有出色的政治技巧,他在任期间奠定了一系列加拿大的“立国之本”,包括立法确立了联邦范围内英语和法语的同等官方语言地位,确立了“多元文化主义”(Multiculturalism Policy)为加拿大的国策,推动加拿大“宪法回家”(尽管早已获得独立,但加拿大长期将最高司法裁决权“留在”前宗主国英国,并一直没有自己的宪法,在老杜鲁多推动下1982年加拿大通过《人权与自由宪章》the Charter of Rights and Freedoms,同年4月17日被英女王确认为加拿大最高基本法)。他虽然是魁北克法裔,但坚决反对魁北克独立,在任职期间一方面强硬处理了“魁独”激进组织“魁北克解放阵线”(FLQ)绑架英国贸易领事克罗斯(James Cross)和魁北克省劳工部长拉波特(Pierre Laporte)的1970年“十月危机”,令“武装魁独”从此一蹶不振,另一方面也说服英语省份给予法语和法裔更多特殊地位,维护了加拿大的统一。


    无 忧 网 - 51


    19738月,总理大人用手斜挎着小杜鲁多,从总理办公大楼前公园里走过,公园里的护卫对他们行礼。

    在外交事务上他也颇具胆识,一方面,他始终坚持北约成员国身份,并在1976年成功推动加拿大加入G7,更在1976年推动C-84法案,使得加拿大在发 达国家中较早废除了死刑;另一方面,他始终坚持独立自主外交,在他之前,加拿大自1949年就一直试图和中国建交,却总是被美国的反对和阻挠吓回去,而他 却在1969年不顾美国“眼色”推动完成了加中建交,更在1973年10月成为最早访华的加拿大总理。 info.51.ca 无忧资讯

    但杜鲁多也有许多争议之处:他是出了名的“拙于经济”的加拿大总理(考虑到联邦自由党的工商业背景,这是很具讽刺意味的),他的长期任职导致加拿大经济滑 坡,失业率高企,赤字惊人和债台高筑;他标榜“理智永远比激情领先一步”,但在国会辩论时常常盛气凌人、装腔作势;他精于谋略和大局观,却不屑庶务,不少 联邦自由党基层骨干表示“对他很陌生”……许多人一方面承认他是战后加拿大最伟大的总理,另一方面也坦言他是“最富于争议的总理”。

    老杜鲁多去世于2000年9月28日,两年后,他的长子、1971年12月25日出生的小杜鲁多戏剧性地登上了政治舞台,时年仅31岁。 - 多伦多 51 网


    51.CA 加国无忧

    1976年,小杜鲁多与父母一起出席了渥太华的Remembrance Day纪念仪式。随行的还有小杜鲁多的弟弟Alexandre

    这次登场源于一场家族悲剧:他的弟弟米歇尔.杜鲁多( Michel Trudeau )在西部不列颠哥伦比亚省的一次高山滑雪中死于雪崩,小杜鲁多以自由党青年骨干和遇难者家属的身份抨击该省停止为雪崩预警系统拨款的决定,从此崭露头角。2006年,联邦自由党在大选中败给哈珀领导的联邦保守党,丧失执政地位,小杜鲁多被联邦自由党委任负责青年事务。

    2008年的立法选举自由党丧失了更多议席,但小杜鲁多却是一个赢家:在魁北克省帕皮诺选区,他成功当选了联邦下议院议员,当时加拿大发行量最大的全国性报纸《环球邮报》就预言“他可能会被视作未来的联邦总理人选”。

    此后3年里,他被党内任命为多元文化和青年事务评论员,并在这一领域成功积攒了不少人气。2011年立法选举,联邦自由党遭到惨败,党领叶礼庭(Michael Ignatieff)引咎辞职,临时“看家”的李博(Bob Rae)压不住台面,当时亲保守党观察家甚至发出“联邦自由党将‘脑死亡’”的预言。

    在此关键时刻,许多自由党支持者(尤其是老杜鲁多时代的元老宿将,和新生代青年党员)将希望寄托在既出自名门、又是党内后起之秀的小杜鲁多身上,2013年4月14日,小杜鲁多在党领选举中获得80.09%的选票胜利当选。 51.CA

    担任党领之初,小杜鲁多因为政治形象清新和“父子效应”人气旺盛,当时民调显示,如果立即举行大选,联邦自由党将获得43%选票,而联邦保守党和联邦新民主党则分别只能获得30%和19%,正因如此,当时媒体曾评价“小杜鲁多让人们眼睛一亮”。

    但很快年轻的小杜鲁多就显示出稚嫩的一面,在公开场合“大错不犯小错不断”,自己和联邦自由党的支持率也迅速回落到“坐三望二”的老位置上。不少人因此悲观预言,小杜鲁多“还嫩”,看来也最多让人眼睛“一”亮而已,无力挑战老到的哈珀。

    由于是多数政府,哈珀和联邦保守党可以在4年任期内选择对本方最有利的选举时间,哈珀当然不会放过这一“特权”,8月2日他宣布10月19日为投票日,从 而确立了加拿大大选史上最长的选举周期,从解散议会到投票,时间长达11周(79天)之久,而通常的选举周期平均仅为37天,在他看来,联邦保守党执政期 间加拿大成功躲过2008年金融危机,失业率低,赤字规模不大,此时选举加上漫长的“预热”,足以说服选民认同“维持现状最好”的本党选举口号。不仅如 此,选前联邦保守党推动通过C-23《公平选举法案》(the Fair Elections Act),从而取消了给联邦参选政党的拨款,这被认为更有利于筹款能力强的执政党。

    事实上选战之初三党支持率胶着,联邦自由党处于最落后的不利境地(民调公司Nanos Research截止7月31日的民调显示,联邦保守党支持率为31.5%,联邦新民主党30.1%,联邦自由党29.3%),而所谓“漫长的8月”里, 先是新民主党异军突起,一度一马当先,继而保守党卷土重来再夺“杆位”,反观小杜鲁多和自由党,似乎被琐碎的基层选区事务“淹没”了,以至于其它两党都早 早彼此“对掐”,而对小杜鲁多这个年轻人视若无睹。

    但9月底、10月初,情况骤然发生变化,联邦自由党的支持率呈“井喷”状态,且在议席最多的安大略、魁北克省更加突出,感到形势不妙的联邦保守党急忙调整 策略,转而将自由党和小杜鲁多当作主要对手,但为时已晚:据选举投票日出口民调显示,联邦自由党得票率39.5%,联邦保守党31.9%,联邦新民主党 19.7%,加拿大选举开票是从东到西,最先开票的“大西洋省份”传统上是保守党领先,但此次几乎被代表自由党的红色席卷;紧接着开票的魁北克省和安大略 省,自由党又延续了这种“扫荡千军”的强势;随着选情的明朗,局势已经再清楚不过——除了保守党最后大本营阿尔伯特省和萨斯喀彻温省,联邦自由党在其它8 省、3地区都获得了最多的议席。在新斯科舍省败选的保守党籍前国防部长麦凯(Peter MacKay)承认,当最忠实于保守党的新不伦瑞克省都变成自由党的红色,人们求变的愿望已不可遏制。

    《多伦多太阳报》和《维多利亚殖民者时报》援引老杜鲁多传记作者英格里什(John English)等人的评论称,小杜鲁多和父亲不同,老杜鲁多能力过人,毁誉参半,喜欢他的极端崇拜,反之则极端憎恶,而小杜鲁多则坦言自己天赋不如父亲,但性格温和,身段灵活;老特鲁 多辩才无碍,演讲时滔滔不绝,而小杜鲁多则显得平易近人,表现出注意倾听的特质;老杜鲁多高高在上,而小杜鲁多则愿意与人交往;老杜鲁多喜欢抓大局,不屑 琐碎繁重的党务和基层工作,而接下自由党败选烂摊子的小杜鲁多则不得不从基层和杂务做起。当初联邦自由党之所以兵败如山倒,并非缺乏底蕴或能人,而是党内 “老人”暮气沉沉且相互倾轧,2006年败选后前总理马田(Paul Martin)辞去党领,李博、叶礼庭的互不相让最终导致党内元老推出公认能力欠缺的迪安(Stéphane Dion),2008年大选迪安“自杀式败选”后,这种倾轧和内耗仍然连绵不绝,最终导致李博和叶礼庭的“同归于尽”,小杜鲁多虽然“嘴上没毛”,却也幸 运地避开了这一内耗泥潭。

    不仅如此,在此前的政治经历中小杜鲁多给人以坦诚、坚持原则的印象,比如他不顾顾问建议坚持在法裔选区直接强调“不认同魁北克独立”,2006年党领选举坚持支持冷门候选人肯尼迪(Gerard Kennedy)并与之共进退,2013年曼德拉葬礼婉拒葬礼组委会的邀请,推荐党内元老考特勒(Irwin Cotler)作为加拿大联邦自由党代表出席,因为考特勒和曼德拉是反种族隔离的亲密战友和关系密切的私人朋友。这些都让他在党内外积累了不少认同感。

    许多自由党内人士认为小杜鲁多此次成功的关键在于4点:党领辩论表现出人意料的好;减税和温和加大投入等经济承诺稳健务实,而新民主党唐民凯的激进刺激措 施让选民不安;坚决拒绝对保守党的负面攻击以牙还牙;在“面纱问题”上表现得体(哈珀主张立法限制伊斯兰妇女在入籍宣誓时佩戴面纱,对此新民主党党领唐民 凯激烈抨击,哈珀则反唇相讥,结果双双“掉粉”,而小杜鲁多回避直接解答,转而强调“每个加拿大公民的自由”则被公认为最得体)。

    而最大的私营电视台CTV则认为,联邦保守党习惯于用负面广告抹黑对手,以前几届大选屡屡成功,此次也如法炮制,在选前抛出连篇累牍的“自由党和小杜鲁多准备好了么”负面广告,暗示后者“嘴上没毛办事不牢”,结果反倒因后者的克制和公众的厌倦适得其反。

    不仅如此,选前联邦保守党以“反恐”为由,推出允许政府剥夺公民国籍的C-24法案,加上执政期间多次削减移民名额、提高移民门槛,甚至将此前排队数年的 申请者“一刀切”,引发许多选民对哈珀政府是否会损害加拿大宪法精神和多元文化国策的担忧,CTV指出,加拿大历史上只要选投票率高,就意味着反对党可 能获胜,2008年大选投票率只有58.8%,2011年是61.4%,而此次高达71%,提前在加拿大感恩节4天假期投票者多达360万人。

    此外,哈珀和保守党对“执政经济成就”的自我感觉有些过份良好了,在许多加拿大人,尤其传统经济大省和人口大省(这也意味着选票大省)安大略和魁北克人看 来,出身阿尔伯特省石油产区的哈珀和保守党将加拿大经济变成了制造业和高科技产业萎缩、畸形依赖石油业的“怪胎”,看上去还可以的经济数据对他们而言并无 意义,《赫芬顿邮报》报道称,对保守党和哈珀的厌倦席卷传统上制造业和高科技产业发达的加拿大东部,这让小杜鲁多和自由党获益匪浅,许多坚定的魁北克独立 派对老杜鲁多十分反感,但投了小杜鲁多的票,这并非因为他们改变了主意,而仅仅因为“这样可以让哈珀的党早点滚蛋”。

    如今小杜鲁多和自由党胜利了,小杜鲁多父亲的亲密战友勒布朗(Dominic LeBlanc)将自由党的胜利称为“一个充满活力的新一代领导者及其新的、积极想法的胜利”,而小杜鲁多本人在胜选后的致辞中称联邦自由党用“积极的政 治和阳光的方式做到了一切”,并称选举的结果表明,加拿大人发出了“加拿大需要真正变化”的明确信号。自由党的政策包括承诺为中产阶级减税,大规模投资基 础设施,重新确认65岁退休年龄,大麻合法化,以及3年赤字控制计划,在外交上,自由党主张从中东撤军,承诺政府的公开、透明运作,和原住民搞好关系。这 些“看上去很美”的主张是否真能给加拿大带来积极因素,是小杜鲁多接下来将面临的考验,正如《环球邮报》所言,他和他的党必须表现出落实政策的效率,并避 免巨额赤字产生,否则就可能重蹈2006年的覆辙。

    2006年哈珀曾在选战中称“老杜鲁多是我政治生涯中的偶像,但我如今明白必须打倒这个偶像才能让加拿大进步”,如今9年一轮回,昔日打倒了偶像的哈珀,又被“另一个杜鲁多”所“打倒”,这真是戏剧性的一幕。




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