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Kevin Rudd, China and Asia Society Policy Institute

已有 392 次阅读2016-1-16 20:58 |个人分类:Frank's Writings| China

Kevin Rudd, China and Asia Society Policy Institute

Frank Jan 16, 2016, in Waterloo, On.

Jan 16, 2016, I was touched by a photo from Kevin Rudd's Tencent Weibo.

陆克文

祝福所有的网友朋友们在2016年里顺利健康平安快乐。老陆

2016-1-1 09:17 来自 iPhone 6s

http://weibo.com/2726223703/Db4Szs0b5?type=comment#_rnd1453049801709

I searched other photo as follow from DailyMail that Destined to follow granddad into a career in politics? Former prime minister Kevin Rudd welcome his adorable first grandson into the world.

Rudd is truly understanding the culture of China, even Blogs in Mandarin.

The photos made me tearful, an active rational politician, at first, is a man who is full of love, is a son, a husband, a father, a grandfather......

Mr. Kevin Rudd was Australia’s 26th Prime Minister and currently is the president of Asia Society Policy Institute based in New York City and Washington, D.C.

I searched some information about Asia Society Policy Institute as follow.

Asia Society is the leading educational organization dedicated to promoting mutual understanding and strengthening partnerships among peoples, leaders and institutions of Asia and the United States in a global context. Across the fields of arts, business, culture, education, and policy, the Society provides insight, generates ideas, and promotes collaboration to address present challenges and create a shared future.

Founded in 1956 by John D. Rockefeller 3rd, Asia Society is a nonpartisan, nonprofit institution with headquarters in New York, centers in Hong Kong andHouston, and offices in Los Angeles, Manila, Mumbai,San Francisco, Seoul, Shanghai, Sydney, Washington, DC and Zurich.

The symbol of the Asia Society is the leogryph.

Mission and History Meet our Co-Chairs

Asia Blog China File

ABOUT MISSION HOW WE WORK STAFF AND ADVISORS

NETWORK OF EXPERTS JOIN OUR EMAIL LIST CAREERS

CONTACT

Asia Society Policy Institute policyinstitute@asiasociety.org

New York:
725 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10021
+1 212 288 6400

Washington, DC:
1300 I Street NW, Suite 400E
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+1 202 833 2742

Staff and Advisors

ASPI’s core staff members are based in New York City and Washington, D.C. Various experts are also affiliated with ASPI through fellowships and senior advisory roles.

STAFF

Josette Sheeran

President and CEO

Josette Sheeran is the seventh president and CEO of Asia Society. In the position, which she assumed in June 2013, she is responsible for leading and advancing the organization's work throughout the U.S. and Asia, and across its disciplines of arts and culture, policy and business, and education. Show full bio

The Hon. Kevin Rudd Kevin Rudd BIO The Honorable President

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U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping

In his report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, ASPI President Kevin Rudd recommends a common strategic narrative to guide the U.S.-China relationship.

Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

This major report examines the economic reforms announced at China's Third Plenum in November 2013, assesses progress in implementing reforms, and projects their economic impacts.

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Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of China

This report considers the policy shift that the Chinese government has called for to address the environmental impacts of economic growth, and assesses the challenges ahead.

Advancing Myanmar's Transition: A Way Forward for U.S. Policy

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Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future

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Kevin Rudd on China in 2016

Kevin Rudd

Dec. 21, 2015

http://time.com/4154103/china-essay-kevin-rudd/

Managing new challenges at home, while approaching a greater role in the global order

2016 is the year of the monkey. According to Chinese astrological tradition, monkeys are supposed to be intelligent, quick-witted, clever, ambitious and adventurous. All of these attributes will be in high demand as China negotiates the complex policy challenges before it in the year ahead.

China will be preoccupied with intense preparations for its 19th Party Congress in 2017. Other than President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, the five other members of the existing Politburo Standing Committee—China’s top leaders—will reach retirement age. There will also be a large turnover in the wider Politburo and the 205-strong Central Committee. Xi has inherited a leadership structure very much determined by his predecessors, so he will use the Party Congress to consolidate his political authority even further. The nationwide mass campaign against corruption of the past three years is likely to conclude, although anticorruption efforts will remain a core priority, central to Xi’s vision of preserving party legitimacy.

Xi will also strengthen the leadership’s economic team, given the imperatives of China’s reform program and the strong global economic headwinds the country faces. Despite some breathless Western commentary, there will be no Chinese economic implosion in 2016. China calculates that it needs at least 6% growth to provide the job numbers, increases in income and poverty reduction required for social stability. We’ll see declines in manufacturing exports, state investment and property, yet slow but gradual increases in private consumption and more-rapid growth in the domestic-services sector and IT are likely to put that 6% figure within reach. Just to make sure, Chinese leaders are embarking on not-insignificant fiscal and monetary expansion—a sign they will do whatever it takes to stay above the 6% threshold.

In its own neighborhood, China appears to have concluded that recent policies in the East and South China Seas have produced more problems than they are worth. The country is embarking on a new diplomatic offensive in the region, one designed to lower the regional temperature, hence high-level diplomacy with Japan, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines, together with Xi’s historic meeting with Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou. China’s strategy is designed to challenge the underlying rationale for the U.S. to “rebalance” to Asia, reflected in U.S. naval deployments in the South China Sea and deepening security engagement with Chinese neighbors. Beijing also wants to avoid any easy pretext for another debilitating round of public “Sino-phobia” during the U.S. presidential campaign.

Globally, we will continue to see a more confident, activist Chinese foreign and economic policy. Xi’s unprecedented rounds of summits in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America reflect a perception of China as the indispensable global economic power. So too with the flurry of large-scale Chinese economic initiatives, like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the BRICS Bank and the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Beijing will use 2016 to consolidate these programs rather than launch anything new on a similar scale.

Within the existing multilateral system, however, China is likely to become increasingly forward-leaning, leaving behind Deng Xiaoping’s doctrine of “hide your strength, bide your time, never take the lead.” The West, rather than attacking Chinese multilateral activism, might consider welcoming it. It may help strengthen the existing, deeply challenged institutions of global governance, like the U.N., the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO and the G-20. Otherwise, the gap between the growing demand for effective global governance and its supply will widen. And that doesn’t help anybody.

Rudd is the 26th Prime Minister of Australia and president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.

This appears in the December 28, 2015 issue of TIME.

Kevin Rudd Prime minister of Australia

Written by: The Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica

Kevin.Rudd@aph.gov.au

http://kevinrudd.com/contact/

Kevin Rudd, in full Kevin Michael Rudd (born September 21, 1957, Nambour, Queensland, Australia), Australian politician, who served as leader of the Australian Labor Party (ALP; 2006–10; 2013) and prime minister of Australia (2007–10; 2013).

Rudd grew up on a farm in Eumundi, Queensland. Politically active from his youth, he joined the ALP in 1972. He attended the Australian National University in Canberra, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in Asian studies before embarking on a diplomatic career. From 1981 to 1988 he served in Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, holding embassy posts in Stockholm and Beijing. He left the department to become chief of staff for Queensland opposition leader Wayne Goss—a position he retained after Goss became premier of Queensland in 1989. Rudd served as director general of the state cabinet office from 1992 to 1995. Entering the private sector, he worked for two years as a senior consultant for the accounting firm KPMG Australia.

Rudd, Kevin: Rudd and his wife, Thérèse Rein [Credit: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images]

Rudd was first elected to the federal House of Representatives—as the member for Griffith, Queensland—in 1998 and was twice reelected (2001 and 2004). In Parliament he held a series of positions that gave him increasing responsibility within the Labor Party. After the 2001 election, in which Prime Minister John Winston Howard’s coalition secured a strong working majority, Rudd was appointed shadow minister for foreign affairs. Frequently appearing in televised interviews and on political talk shows, Rudd became known as a vocal critic of the Howard government’s handling of the Iraq War. He was given the additional shadow ministry portfolios of international security in 2003 and trade in 2005. At the ALPcaucus held on December 4, 2006, he was chosen party leader, defeating former head Kim Beazley by a vote of 49–39.

In 2007 Rudd increased his calls for Howard to set a date for the next federal elections and urged the prime minister to meet him in face-to-face debates. Rudd—who was riding a wave of popular support at the same time that Howard’s voter-satisfaction ratings were dropping—promised to bring a new leadership style to Australian politics. He called for a clear-cut exit strategy for Australian forces in Iraq, and he criticized Howard for recent rises in interest rates. In addition, Rudd stressed the importance of improving health services. To that end, he announced a comprehensive public health reform plan that he vowed to set in motion early in his administration if he was elected prime minister. In the November 2007 elections, the ALP easily defeated Howard and the Liberal Party. Rudd was sworn in as prime minister on December 3, 2007. Following through on a campaign promise, he formally apologized to the Australian Aborigines in February 2008 for abuses they had suffered under earlier administrations.

Rudd made climate change a centrepiece of his administration, calling it the “greatest moral challenge of our generation” and pushing for adoption of a carbon emissions trading scheme. He negotiated a deal with Malcolm Turnbull of the opposition Liberal Party of Australia to secure passage of the bill in the Senate. However, Turnbull faced dissent within his own party that led to his ouster and replacement by Tony Abbott, an opponent of the emissions trading scheme, and the bill was defeated in the Senate in December 2009. Because of this and other policy setbacks, Rudd’s popularity declined, prompting an internal challenge by Julia Gillard, his deputy prime minister, in June 2010. Sensing his imminent defeat, Rudd chose not to contest the leadership vote, and Gillard was subsequently elected ALP leader and succeeded him as prime minister. Later that year Rudd became foreign minister, but he resigned in late February 2012 amid speculation that he was planning to challenge Gillard for leadership of the party. Within days Gillard called for a poll among the members of Parliament who belonged to the government coalition, and the vote resulted in a decisive defeat for Rudd.

ALP infighting continued, and in June 2013 Rudd’s ALP supporters began petitioning for Rudd to challenge Gillard for party leadership. Gillard responded with a call for a decisive ALP leadership vote in which the loser would retire from politics, to which Rudd agreed. On June 26, 2013, Rudd emerged as the winner, once again assuming leadership of the ALP, and he was sworn in as prime minister the next day. The change in leadership did little to reverse the party’s decline in public approval, however, and less than three months later Rudd and the ALP suffered a decisive loss to the Liberal-National coalition in the September 7 general election. Rudd retained his parliamentary seat but announced that he would step down as party leader.

【澳大利亚】陆克文：构建亚太共同体，迈向命运共同体

2015-11-19 01:28:00 环球时报陆克文

http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2015-11/8008022.html

　　以亚太共同体应对地区秩序二元分立

　　有人将当今亚太安全紧张局势与1914年前的欧洲相提并论。我认为不致于此，但不可否认的是亚太秩序见证了一个二元分立的出现，一方面是面向21世纪的一体化经济秩序，而另一方面则是愈发陷入19世纪边缘的地区安全秩序。

　　尽管如此，亚洲领导人依然可以从欧洲最近的历史中汲取经验教训。也正是这段民族主义相争的惨痛历史，让当时作为澳大利亚总理的我提出了亚太共同体的倡议。2008年倡议之初，我曾强调，尽管亚太地区的大国目前在和谐之中，但历史提醒我们不该假定“和平”可以不维持而永存续。那已是7年前的事情。反观今日，亚太似乎已不很太平。

　　当然，亚太共同体与欧洲共同体的构建与演进或是大相径庭的。因为亚太与欧洲的差别显著。譬如，欧洲民族国家的概念自15世纪以来便逐渐发展，而在亚洲则不然。两者的文明轨迹完全不同。此外，20世纪的亚洲历史在很大程度上是一部殖民地和后殖民地的历史;同一时期的欧洲则是殖民者。故而两者对世界秩序和规则建立的主导性也是不同的。

　　欧洲通过创造性的方式冲淡国家主权的意味(欧盟创始人认为这是战争的来源)，而亚洲国家则努力保护来之不易的主权。这便是亚洲地区主义以互不干涉内政原则为基础、更加强调国家为中心的地区秩序的原因。战后很长时间里，亚洲国家反对建立永久性的地区机构，直至1967年，我们才看到了东盟的成立，然后是亚太经合组织、东盟地区论坛和2005年的东亚峰会。

　　因而我们需强调：任何亚太共同体都应该建立在共同的文化价值、地区机制和外交政策现实基础之上。我们不能只通过西方的视角理解亚洲所需，照葫芦画瓢。亚洲及亚太一体化应该有自己的构成逻辑和演进轨迹。

　　然而，亚欧之间的差异不应让我们忽视这一现实：即使历史不会重演，但却有迹可循。我们从欧洲学到的最重要经验是，区域一体化必须要迈出第一步。尽管欧洲现在面临困难：经济衰退、难民危机，但欧洲已经形成命运共同体，欧盟在欧洲和世界的和平与发展中扮演不可或缺的作用。在亚太地区我们也要加紧建立我们自己的命运共同体，以应对越来越复杂的地区和国际形势。

　　共识构建需多年时间，但我们必须迈出第一步

　　事实上，随着全球化和经济一体化，亚太命运共同体已经越来越呼之欲出。亚太地区需要发展出共同的政治和安全架构，以管控地区安全局势、保障地区和全球的和平与发展。假以时日，亚太共同体将会加深相互依赖，培养透明、互信与合作的新习惯。这些机制将帮助亚洲应对危机，和平管控危机，并减少愈加明显的华盛顿和北京之间的战略分歧。7年前我并不相信亚太共同体可以一蹴而就，现在也不这样认为。共识的构建需要多年时间。亚太共同体可以从地区国家之间最基本的信心和安全建设措施做起。但我们必须迈出第一步。

　　欧洲的历史已经提醒我们，和平不是想当然。所以，亚太领导人在区域一体化的命题是所面临的挑战是，立足亚洲独特性，借鉴欧洲经验(主要避免欧洲曾经犯下的错误)，充分利用现存的亚太区域内的机构机制来发展出一个亚太共同体。事实上，自2008年我提出亚太共同体倡议以来，亚洲面临的传统与非传统安全挑战并没有发生根本改变。改变的只是这些挑战变得更加显著、更加紧迫。而现存的区域机构在处理这些挑战时越发显得力不从心。

　　一系列悬而未决的领土争端使得大国和地区国家之间的战略摩擦日益增多，亚太安全秩序面临极大压力。基于贸易自由化基础之上的亚洲经济秩序也显示出了分歧迹象，贸易集团之间相互排斥——亚太地区的政治领导人们面临抉择：要么选择听之任之，任由各种事件塑造我们的未来;要么相信人定胜天，我们一起构建人类命运共同体。我相信领导人们会选择后者，那么问题是：我们能做些什么？

　　我认为，在2020年建成亚太共同体是一个可能的目标。为了开启地区讨论，澳大利亚政府2009年就亚太共同体举办了峰会，并指定总理特别代表，向地区内300多位官员、30位部长和8名国家领导人征询意见。有5点共识得以达成：

　　其一、亚太地区对构建亚太共同体兴趣浓厚;

　　其二、亚太地区现有的机制构架不足以管控地区经济、安全和政治挑战;

　　其三、对于在现存机制之外创建新的区域平台大家并不很积极(更合理的选择是以某个现存机制为基础，逐步完善并最终发展出更全面的区域平台——亚太共同体);

　　其四、东盟在未来亚太共同体中应处于中坚地位;

　　其五、要给予亚太共同体的倡议以更多的实质性内容。

　　因此，我在2015年担任美国亚洲协会政策研究院主席之后，特别成立了一个政策委员会来继续研究未来的亚太地区架构，包括创建亚太共同体的可能性。时下我们致力于：推动改革地区架构的共识，研究亚太共同体在实践中的具体可能。

　　实现亚太共同体的可能路线图

　　我认为，基于东亚峰会(EAS)这一区域内新兴的机构安排，有可能逐渐建构起一个更具活力的泛区域性机构。东亚峰会已经有一个涵盖政治、安全、经济和其他地区挑战的使命，即2005年吉隆坡宣言。东亚峰会的成员国及观察员国包括中国、美国、俄国、印度和日本等大国，足够使这一机构继续发展扩张。此外，东亚峰会的基础是东盟十国，而由于东南亚在东北亚和南亚之间的“摇摆点”的战略地位愈发显著。在几十年的时间里，东盟在区域一体化方面也积累了成功的历史经验。

　　东亚峰会的意义在于，其理念和行为均以东盟为核心。东亚峰会的13个成员国和5个观察员国包括所有与该地区未来战略稳定有直接关系的国家。因此，没有必要再成立新的机构，也无需决定应该招募哪些国家为新会员。这些问题已在东亚峰会成立时得到解决。此外，未来亚太共同体的宗旨可以遵循2005年首届东亚峰会的吉隆坡宣言。该宣言涵盖政治、安全、经济以及其他形式的泛地区合作，成员国无需就新宗旨进行谈判，这个难题(尤其对于美国而言)已经解决。而且，关于条约架构，东亚峰会所有成员国均已签署并批准《东南亚友好合作条约》。

　　基于上述所有因素，我认为东亚峰会可以逐步发展为亚太共同体。这与习近平主席最近所提出的“坚持亚太大家庭精神和命运共同体意识创造和实现亚太梦想”，是一脉相承的。

　　那么，以东亚峰会为基础，构建亚太共同体，以主导和实施政治、安全和经济合作的综合性、泛地区机构，如何实现？

　　首先、以2020年为目标时间，就“东亚峰会转变为亚太共同体”达成一致，以便有充足的时间确定一个各方同意的未来运作的范围;

　　其次、由东亚峰会/亚太共同体直接管理现有的东盟防长扩大会(ADMM-Plus)。这两个机构有着完全相同的成员国。如此一来，亚太共同体不但拥有安全机构, 而且为所有成员国和观察员国建立了军事、国防和安全合作框架;

　　第三、为了将东亚峰会转变为正常运行的亚太共同体，应建立一个常设秘书处——可以是雅加达、新加坡或者吉隆坡;同时，考虑到亚太地区在政治、经济、军事和其他政策领域面临的巨大挑战，需要一个如同布鲁塞尔的共同体总部，以逐步加强机构组织能力;

　　第四、东亚峰会/亚太共同体应为国家首脑级别会议，以确保其最高的政治权威性，并可为地区和平与稳定的各个方面确定最高政治方向。

　　对于愈发两极化的亚洲来说，以上设想都不会奇迹般地实现。构建亚太共同体必须从今天做起，这样我们才有可能在未来某一天像让·莫内1948年写给罗伯特·舒曼的那样：“我们已经摆脱了准备战争的阶段，我们现在开始准备防止战争。”尽管欧盟之父们对于欧洲一体化的现实限制、途径和最终目标存在分歧，但他们所取得的成就是不可否认的。当欧元区增长困境、未解决的难民危机、退出欧盟的可能性等成为国际媒体头条时，将欧盟视作亚太共同体的潜在榜样的说法似乎不合时宜。但不容置疑的是，欧盟成功地实现了其历史任务——消弭了多个世纪以来横亘在法德之间的安全困境，让欧洲中心地区爆发现代战争变得无法想象，也逐步构建起了欧洲命运共同体。亚洲和亚太地区应该也有如此的期望。

　　适逢东亚峰会十周年，一个历史性的机遇窗口在我们面前打开。

　　以东亚峰会为基础，构建亚太共同体，以形成和维护亚太命运共同体，时不我待。(作者是澳大利亚第26任总理、美国亚洲协会政策研究院主席，本文由胡锦洋采访整理、王晓雄编译，特别致谢钱镜先生在成文过程中的贡献)