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Canada fiscal figures 加拿大央行对经济反弹太乐观 年底前或降息

已有 303 次阅读2016-5-28 22:26 |个人分类:加拿大| 渣打银行, 美国经济, 路透社, 加拿大, 分析师


Liberals, Tories spar over fiscal figures

三月联邦赤字达94亿 年同比增长三倍


加国无忧 51.CA2016年5月28日 07:09来源:世界日报


联邦财政部(Department of Finance)27日公布最新财务状况,2015-16年度赤字约20亿元,与自由党预算案估计的54亿元大致相符。 而今年3月政府收入较去年同期减少50亿元,主因是个人所得税和企业税下降,以及开支项目增加13亿元,公共债务开支增加1亿元,使3月份的单月赤字达94亿元,远高于去年同期的30亿元。

财政部长摩尼奥日前公布年度预算赤��达294亿元,如今三月单月赤��达94亿元。(CBC)

财政部长摩尼奥日前公布年度预算赤字达294亿元,如今三月单月赤字达94亿元。(CBC)

财政部表示,去年度的财政报告将于7月公布,财政部长摩尼奥(Bill Morneau)的发言人罗宗(Daniel Lauzon)表示,“保守党一直强调财政盈余的优势,但最终他们仍留下预算赤字。”然而,保守党财政评论员蕾特(Lisa Raitt)反驳自由党的说法,她说:“自由党政府做了多项调整,包括变更联邦所得税法(Income Tax Act),改变了联邦政府的总收入并扩大支出,一切都在他们的掌握中。”不过,罗宗认为政府扩大投资是为了创造就业机会。

根据自由党于3月公布财政预算,2016-17年度赤字将达294亿元,如今3月单月赤字又高达94亿元。其中主要原因是税收减少50亿元至241亿元,个人所得税减少11亿元,企业税减少21亿元;消费税(excise tax)和关税则增加5亿元。支出项目则增加13亿元至315亿元。

Liberals, Tories spar over fiscal figures


May 27, 2016

OTTAWA — The Liberals say the latest figures from the Finance Department — which show a small deficit in the last fiscal year — confirm that the Tories left the books in the red when they lost the election last fall.

However, the Conservatives place blame for the deficit squarely on the Liberals — continuing a war of words over the state of the government's finances.

The Finance Department said Friday there was a $2-billion deficit for fiscal 2015-16, based on preliminary estimates. The result comes before any year-end adjustments as well as a $3.7-billion commitment to benefits for veterans.

Final figures are expected to be released in the fall, but the Finance Department said the overall outcome was "broadly in line" with the $5.4-billion deficit for 2015-16 that was projected in the spring budget.

"The Conservatives have always talked a big game when it comes to balancing the budget, but their legacy amounts to them leaving behind tens of billions in additional debt with little more than a slowing economy to show for it," said Daniel Lauzon, a spokesman for Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

Conservative finance critic Lisa Raitt swiftly pointed a finger at the Liberals.

"They made significant moves, they made changes to the Income Tax Act which has affected revenues, they have made changes in terms of departmental spending, that is completely within their control," said Raitt, who was in Vancouver to attend her party's convention.

In Winnipeg for the Liberal convention, Morneau allowed that moves the Liberals made in the last fiscal year contributed to the deficit. But he added: "When we take out the measures that we've put in, we're still in a deficit position. So it's quite clear that we were starting off with a deficit."

The competing views reignited a long-running — and often heated — debate about whether the Conservatives left the Canadian fiscal house in order, a point of pride for a party that preached the virtues of balanced books.

There is enough ambiguity in the figures for each party to make an argument in its favour, said Craig Alexander, vice-president of economic analysis at the C.D. Howe Institute.

"It's very difficult to break down the numbers and know to what extent would the budgetary numbers come in differently under a Conservative government than under the Liberal government," Alexander said Friday.

"You can't parse the numbers and have a definitive answer to that."

In the end, the answer is not very important to the average Canadian anyway, Alexander said.

"It really is a political spat," he said. "If there was a deficit, it wasn't of a meaningful size. So from a purely economic point of view, it really doesn't matter. And it's now in the rearview mirror, and the Liberal government has told us that they will be running deficits for the next several years."

Morneau said the Liberal goal is to make investments that boost economic growth.

In their spring budget, the Liberals announced plans for a $29.4-billion deficit for the 2016-17 fiscal year with billions being spent to help boost economic growth.

For March, the government posted a $9.4-billion deficit compared with a deficit of $3 billion in the same month last year.

The shortfall came as revenue fell $5 billion to $24.1 billion. Personal income-tax revenue fell by $1.1 billion or 9.4 per cent and corporate income-tax revenue fell by $2.1 billion or 37.3 per cent. Excise taxes and duties gained $500 million or 15 per cent.

Program spending increased by $1.3 billion to $31.5 billion, while public debt charges increased $100 million.

For the full year, government revenue totalled $289.6 billion, up $10.6 billion from a year ago, while program spending was $266 billion, up $16.6 billion.

Public debt charges for the year were down $1.1 billion at $25.5 billion.

— With files from Stephanie Levitz in Vancouver and Joan Bryden in Winnipeg

By Jim Bronskill and Craig Wong, The Canadian Press


央行对经济反弹太乐观 年底前或降息


加国无忧 51.CA2016年5月28日 11:24来源:路透社


虽然在这周三的议息报告中,加拿大央行再度展现了对经济的乐观,但是并不是所有业内专家都持赞同意见。分析师称,央行对经济反弹过于乐观,或引发年底前降息风险。

报告指,加拿大央行曾在2015年1月在外界毫无预期之下降息,显示央行乐于采取突袭。当时加拿大央行总裁波洛兹说,迅速采取行动的好处“胜过任何短期市场震荡的代价”。

波洛兹虽回避提出前瞻指引,但他在4月时说,如果不是因为自由党政府承诺的财政刺激,央行很可能已考虑再度降息。许多人把这番话视为央行将保持观望立场的迹象。

可是,HSBC Bank of Canada首席分析师说,央行年底前将不得不降息,因为指望美国经济来帮助加拿大走出疲软的办法,其成效已大不如前。美国是加拿大最大的贸易伙伴。

曾准确预测加拿大央行2015年1月降息的渣打银行资深分析师Thomas Costerg指出,波洛兹喜欢用后来公布的数据来证明自己有理;并预计今年会再度降息。

“波洛兹不是推崇前瞻指引的人,所以他会对数据做出反应,”Costerg说。“我觉得央行应该不会在那之前释出温和讯号。”


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